Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-04-26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf67c7309d92f2b921fd91084fcc37d505c59b3a6e61d8fc2a747235aa643ebb3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,500
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,891
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,500 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x31c1…7047backed Yes | 72c | 6,339$4,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,798.58 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 28c | 2,803$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.71 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 29c | 2,318$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.92 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 39c | 913.35$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.24 | 84 | 20.2%17 W · 67 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 36c | 798.04$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.33 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 52c | 611.09$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.3 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x660d…56acbacked Yes | 41c | 539.23$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.44 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 57c | 501.26$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.9 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x581a…8e5fbacked Yes | 68c | 450.83$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.25 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 53c | 422.46$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.55 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 31c | 363.25$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.62 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2057…af78backed Yes | 41c | 317.89$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.56 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +85%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce0…4754backed Yes | 80c | 312.38$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a05…754abacked Yes | 45c | 301.68$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.31 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 59c | 299.01$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.42 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b3…7650backed Yes | 47c | 261.83$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.35 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +72.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 27c | 246.63$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.47 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Yes | 69c | 203.52$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.94 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 24c | 174.8$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.71 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 60c | 143$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed No | 59c | 134.95$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.62 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 41c | 125.25$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.65 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…431dbacked Yes | 39c | 123.51$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.34 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…57afbacked Yes | 40c | 120.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.3 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…bb76backed No | 9c | 114.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 61c | 109.05$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.03 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb87…5742backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 64c | 97.84$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.62 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 18c | 89.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 75c | 78.8$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc866…8c6dbacked Yes | 69c | 72.03$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Yes | 72c | 69.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +7.2wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 21c | 65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 61c | 58.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 70c | 55.95$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Yes | 36c | 51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46e7…c9e4backed Yes | 38c | 50.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Yes | 39c | 49.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 205 | 40%82 W · 123 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 36c | 49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe378…148ebacked Yes | 80c | 42.93$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea6…dcf5backed Yes | 71c | 40.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89f2…d85fbacked Yes | 78c | 37.57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed No | 61c | 37.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -6.6wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa504…c842backed Yes | 39c | 37.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2035…679dbacked Yes | 80c | 30.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be0…6deebacked No | 40c | 26.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -54%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2014…caefbacked Yes | 75c | 26.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…5198backed Yes | 79c | 21.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca61…b2b3backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 59c | 18.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-04-26?this page
- Will 1. FC Magdeburg win on 2026-04-26?No won
- Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs. 1. FC Magdeburg end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.