Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 68°F or higher on May 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6853f1aa52dd7f723a2387f088efc013f6931871bd68987192be27ca8c67396
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,461
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,855
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,461 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 13c | 227.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 74c | 197.94$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.26 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 24c | 171.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.33 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 80c | 157.33$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.47 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 25c | 143.36$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked Yes | 78c | 123.41$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf28f…841abacked Yes | 79c | 114.04$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed Yes | 75c | 112.46$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 16c | 110$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 77c | 99.18$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.17 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes | 73c | 94$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 20c | 79.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 23c | 75.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 20c | 73.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 23c | 71.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb696…02d9backed No | 23c | 69.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 19c | 66.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 31c | 62.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 22c | 55.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 20c | 54.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked No | 20c | 52.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 26c | 47.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9948…5da1backed No | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9a…10ffbacked Yes | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked Yes | 79c | 39.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 75c | 38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 69c | 30.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17e6…6688backed Yes | 68c | 29.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed Yes | 75c | 27.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…2de4backed Yes | 73c | 27.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28f8…b5f7backed Yes | 77c | 27.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked Yes | 75c | 27.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…a481backed Yes | 75c | 25.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfc…31b1backed Yes | 54c | 25.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb060…9572backed Yes | 76c | 22.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10bc…6d0abacked Yes | 74c | 20.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 75c | 20.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…928dbacked Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2806…13c1backed Yes | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde55…dfc0backed Yes | 70c | 18.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed Yes | 76c | 15.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be 68°F or higher on May 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 52-53°F on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 54-55°F on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 64-65°F on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on May 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.