Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on December 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf69ae0e056a0d7b2cb8d006e992ba3de21090d57a01c2233ea7c8fa2e003672f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,577
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,233
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,577 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed No | 7c | 2,000$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.73 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde64…6ad7backed Yes | 63c | 1,963$1,238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.76 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 6c | 965.75$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.1 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 7c | 544.86$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 56c | 241.54$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.53 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 64c | 234.52$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.52 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad05…1b83backed Yes | 54c | 200.93$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.29 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +180.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked No | 47c | 200.2$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.57 | 113 | 23%26 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…352ebacked No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 175 | 32%56 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6857…7f23backed No | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2a29…8b9ebacked No | 24c | 197.24$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa19…6bbebacked Yes | 44c | 191$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce8…0158backed Yes | 51c | 188$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a60…e1debacked Yes | 47c | 186$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 41c | 185.05$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.1 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa5…de1dbacked No | 56c | 180$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe60…4374backed No | 47c | 177$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ce…5cfdbacked Yes | 44c | 173$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcea8…d492backed No | 46c | 172$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96c9…50dcbacked No | 53c | 171$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8840…5f36backed Yes | 44c | 167$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +152.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4dd…737abacked Yes | 61c | 165.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.02 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.9wins | -0.30per pick | 61cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ae…7348backed Yes | 44c | 164$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f2…ea15backed Yes | 54c | 163$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…04b5backed Yes | 53c | 162$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c8…4307backed No | 56c | 162$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49e8…b1b0backed No | 56c | 161$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf63…cf95backed No | 56c | 158$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 46c | 141.55$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.63 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 27c | 132.09$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1b…efb5backed Yes | 42c | 120.53$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.77 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 47c | 112$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.36 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…5fc4backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b5…6d52backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 35c | 73.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 44c | 68.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc00a…2424backed Yes | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 67c | 63.28$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 50c | 61.69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd2…2dd6backed Yes | 51c | 58.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…cb9cbacked No | 21c | 58.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…7afabacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 122 | 37.7%46 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 45c | 48.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.29 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…6ba8backed Yes | 64c | 47.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cc…0540backed Yes | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 50c | 42.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5222…d2f6backed No | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0f…3c80backed Yes | 60c | 38.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…f272backed No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d1…f2f6backed Yes | 67c | 30.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 65cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bad…08a1backed Yes | 45c | 30.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb56a…a485backed Yes | 56c | 30.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2008…db59backed Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…1c78backed Yes | 58c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3eb…437cbacked Yes | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…56d6backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d45…7b58backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76da…bc13backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd65a…6599backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 94 | 7.4%7 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dab…8013backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on December 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 52°F or below on December 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 63°F or higher on December 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on December 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on December 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on December 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on December 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.