Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on December 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x191993389c4bdbf3974a727d03b96beddb5504c34636b219c439b249e1dd37cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,556
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,329
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,556 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 33c | 1,239$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.06 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde64…6ad7backed Yes | 2c | 1,050$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6573…ab02backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf55…446dbacked Yes | 41c | 801.31$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.39 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…9464backed No | 69c | 695.74$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.92 | 132 | 50%66 W · 66 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed No | 56c | 636.26$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.59 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 43c | 500.15$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.24 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 35c | 415.22$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.24 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d71…87d5backed Yes | 36c | 325$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x731c…bb67backed Yes | 41c | 273.35$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.81 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 6c | 259.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…d13abacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 943 | 3.4%32 W · 911 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…afb9backed Yes | 45c | 232.55$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.18 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd08c…748cbacked No | 64c | 225$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 59c | 213.87$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.57 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 38c | 213.86$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…0861backed Yes | 42c | 200.5$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.02 | 247 | 10.5%26 W · 221 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe52…32c5backed Yes | 44c | 199.99$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.67 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -6.6wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe523…09ddbacked Yes | 43c | 164.62$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.73 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 54c | 158.98$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.73 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x390b…4354backed Yes | 46c | 153.42$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4261…3984backed Yes | 30c | 152$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f53…5640backed No | 70c | 139$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 62cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed No | 67c | 132.13$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.98 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9214…2ed9backed No | 66c | 124.81$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.58 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc6…464cbacked No | 69c | 123.62$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.37 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x998a…745bbacked No | 63c | 111.17$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.17 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…637ebacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.34 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe944…314cbacked No | 70c | 99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc00a…2424backed Yes | 44c | 91.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 33c | 80.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad05…1b83backed Yes | 41c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +180.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 60c | 66.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad7f…d96cbacked Yes | 32c | 59.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 169 | 24.3%41 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7a…d35bbacked Yes | 36c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 23.9%16 W · 51 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacf0…0274backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4dc…0fc3backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…e088backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c36…2209backed Yes | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 64c | 49.34$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 47.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad7b…80c9backed Yes | 35c | 46.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51b7…d820backed Yes | 33c | 45.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 254 | 36.6%93 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 59c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0f…3c80backed Yes | 46c | 43.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 42.19$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 35c | 42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…6ba8backed Yes | 49c | 40.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eec…be17backed Yes | 45c | 35.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -7.7wins | -0.22per pick | 48cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8709…b139backed Yes | 36c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f6e…3288backed No | 61c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1401…0707backed No | 52c | 30.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2008…db59backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe353…d040backed No | 54c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77d0…d1dcbacked Yes | 42c | 25.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x983d…933fbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…1c78backed Yes | 45c | 24.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe581…8a4ebacked No | 68c | 24.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…2f5cbacked No | 53c | 21.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 60cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe555…782fbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on December 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 52°F or below on December 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 63°F or higher on December 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on December 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on December 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on December 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on December 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.