Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6a94704ff38bd8c589c3ea70302c3a15dfabd5edd5261bbed98b1d82018e9ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Zero Tenacityof VP.Prodigy, Zero Tenacity
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,046
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,550
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,046 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4162…0d18backed VP.Prodigy | 32c | 767.17$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.74 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa474…32cbbacked VP.Prodigy | 20c | 750$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 538 | 44.4%239 W · 299 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f03…77dcbacked Zero Tenacity | 55c | 648.82$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.18 | 292 | 40.4%118 W · 174 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b0…329ebacked VP.Prodigy | 53c | 486.13$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.79 | 802 | 56%449 W · 353 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Zero Tenacity | 75c | 480.91$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.19 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Zero Tenacity | 65c | 449.63$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.37 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…dc80backed VP.Prodigy | 57c | 298.85$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.81 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked VP.Prodigy | 17c | 232.56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.65 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x672d…dbd7backed Zero Tenacity | 51c | 225.27$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.22 | 400 | 47.5%190 W · 210 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Zero Tenacity | 55c | 159.29$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.31 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed VP.Prodigy | 15c | 147.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…aefdbacked VP.Prodigy | 43c | 137$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.91 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked VP.Prodigy | 49c | 112.47$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.48 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed VP.Prodigy | 53c | 105.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.7 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed VP.Prodigy | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2c…9642backed VP.Prodigy | 23c | 78.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf28…db5dbacked Zero Tenacity | 67c | 73.57$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06d9…7cfbbacked Zero Tenacity | 61c | 69.01$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 201 | 51.2%103 W · 98 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed Zero Tenacity | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Zero Tenacity | 41c | 49.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked VP.Prodigy | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26d1…b4c8backed Zero Tenacity | 53c | 29.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -7.3wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2416…6e91backed VP.Prodigy | 62c | 23.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 386 | 53.9%208 W · 178 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Group AZero Tenacity won
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 WinnerZero Tenacity won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.