Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Cincinnati Bearcats vs. UCF Knights: O/U 149.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6aa9f14f2cf340e700dc1beec6cdf64cb930f6a800990fc3c1383429475227c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,525
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,525 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2537…bff9backed Under | 51c | 24,003$12,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,652.59 | 444 | 52.7%234 W · 210 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 12,782$6,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,181.46 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 48c | 11,000$5,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,279.99 | 906 | 45.4%411 W · 495 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Under | 52c | 5,719$2,974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,745.04 | 351 | 47.6%167 W · 184 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…75a0backed Over | 49c | 4,064$1,991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,991.18 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf7…06acbacked Under | 52c | 2,338$1,226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,111.34 | 273 | 50.5%138 W · 135 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf606…440abacked Over | 49c | 1,983$971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$971.43 | 183 | 49.2%90 W · 93 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 48c | 1,507$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.33 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6337…62c5backed Over | 48c | 1,211$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.44 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…8441backed Under | 52c | 999.99$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.99 | 422 | 46.2%195 W · 227 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87b8…29dcbacked Over | 48c | 416.33$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.92 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Over | 48c | 330.42$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.6 | 1,251 | 50.6%633 W · 618 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Over | 48c | 206.51$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.13 | 833 | 50.2%418 W · 415 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Over | 49c | 166.89$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.78 | 609 | 54.5%332 W · 277 L | +15.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 50c | 153.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.52 | 1,234 | 44.8%553 W · 681 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Over | 49c | 148.24$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.64 | 624 | 51.1%319 W · 305 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed Over | 42c | 114.59$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.07 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 58c | 110$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 115 | 60%69 W · 46 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 49c | 101.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.78 | 586 | 52.9%310 W · 276 L | +23.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Over | 49c | 66.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 296 | 50.7%150 W · 146 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55af…8407backed Over | 48c | 55.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Over | 49c | 35.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 276 | 50.7%140 W · 136 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc62e…108dbacked Over | 49c | 34.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 106 | 38.7%41 W · 65 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda4f…77e9backed Under | 52c | 29.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 24.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Bearcats vs. UCF Knights: O/U 149.5this page
- Cincinnati Bearcats vs. UCF KnightsUCF Knights won
- Cincinnati Bearcats vs. UCF Knights: O/U 147.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Bearcats (-2.5)UCF Knights won
- Spread: Cincinnati Bearcats (-3.5)UCF Knights won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.