Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Cincinnati Bearcats (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca251f17be80a991b1c818cb9facaf08b6ca7a3dc301a45251e9a27a3792ae05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- UCF Knightsof Cincinnati Bearcats, UCF Knights
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $118,618
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $118,618 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44fd…b634backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 51c | 33,158$16,804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,803.97 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed UCF Knights | 49c | 30,000$14,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,200 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +7.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 53c | 7,453$3,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,950.25 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a2…ae70backed UCF Knights | 47c | 5,227$2,468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,759.01 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +7.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked UCF Knights | 49c | 3,665$1,813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,852.05 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked UCF Knights | 47c | 2,109$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,117.83 | 741 | 52.6%390 W · 351 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…2adfbacked Cincinnati Bearcats | 50c | 1,983$991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$991.25 | 572 | 48.1%275 W · 297 L | -27.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc1d…faffbacked UCF Knights | 50c | 1,947$973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$973.3 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Cincinnati Bearcats | 52c | 1,724$896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$896.4 | 906 | 45.4%411 W · 495 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66b6…159dbacked UCF Knights | 47c | 1,582$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$838.37 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cincinnati Bearcats | 50c | 1,102$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.21 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…f458backed UCF Knights | 48c | 892.14$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.91 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed UCF Knights | 15c | 699.33$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.68 | 429 | 34.3%147 W · 282 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed UCF Knights | 50c | 698.2$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.1 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 50c | 556.85$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.42 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed UCF Knights | 45c | 459.51$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.76 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 48c | 412.96$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.66 | 1,234 | 44.8%553 W · 681 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed UCF Knights | 47c | 399.95$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.98 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6859…fb90backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 53c | 331.05$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.46 | 127 | 49.6%63 W · 64 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x459f…c1f5backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 54c | 330.99$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.73 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dee…f426backed UCF Knights | 47c | 316.35$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.66 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 52c | 310.56$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.49 | 918 | 48.9%449 W · 469 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x691a…d113backed UCF Knights | 47c | 234.93$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.51 | 220 | 43.2%95 W · 125 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cincinnati Bearcats | 54c | 230.01$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.46 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59a8…eb4ebacked UCF Knights | 51c | 223.52$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.52 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Cincinnati Bearcats | 50c | 208.08$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.04 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 51c | 185.96$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.84 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed UCF Knights | 48c | 160.6$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.5 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Cincinnati Bearcats | 40c | 137.7$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.1 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe33f…e413backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 49c | 119.61$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.61 | 372 | 46.2%172 W · 200 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 47c | 117.3$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.64 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72bc…b24ebacked UCF Knights | 47c | 110.03$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.32 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked UCF Knights | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2344…3dbebacked Cincinnati Bearcats | 50c | 99.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed UCF Knights | 50c | 98.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.82 | 338 | 55%186 W · 152 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85a7…d9f3backed UCF Knights | 51c | 97.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.62 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked UCF Knights | 66c | 90.29$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 1,531 | 50.1%767 W · 764 L | +34.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…2499backed UCF Knights | 50c | 90.16$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.33 | 293 | 37.2%109 W · 184 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed UCF Knights | 15c | 88.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.14 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…c6b9backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 37c | 80.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked UCF Knights | 50c | 65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 605 | 51.4%311 W · 294 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…b47fbacked Cincinnati Bearcats | 65c | 54.94$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.71 | 218 | 50.9%111 W · 107 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda4f…77e9backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 50c | 54.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 50c | 49.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 624 | 51.1%319 W · 305 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked UCF Knights | 47c | 45.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.07 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 300 | 50.7%152 W · 148 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Cincinnati Bearcats | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 485 | 51.1%248 W · 237 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf02…3a63backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 328 | 50%164 W · 164 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…9190backed UCF Knights | 49c | 39.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed UCF Knights | 47c | 34.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 353 | 38.5%136 W · 217 L | -18.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed UCF Knights | 50c | 34.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed UCF Knights | 38c | 31.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 1,249 | 16.4%205 W · 1,044 L | -189.4wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8487…a68bbacked UCF Knights | 49c | 30.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Cincinnati Bearcats | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8f…8bbabacked UCF Knights | 47c | 27.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked UCF Knights | 49c | 25.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 306 | 52%159 W · 147 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 75c | 23.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 576 | 55%317 W · 259 L | +17.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked UCF Knights | 74c | 18.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cincinnati Bearcats (-2.5)this page
- Cincinnati Bearcats vs. UCF KnightsUCF Knights won
- Cincinnati Bearcats vs. UCF Knights: O/U 147.5Under won
- Cincinnati Bearcats vs. UCF Knights: O/U 149.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Bearcats (-3.5)UCF Knights won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.