CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Alliance - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6b065a0f1d70100c3dacab6cfcf38e30ce46d6a019b1419fd55d7de90ef45ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Aurora Gamingof Aurora Gaming, Alliance
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,378
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,876
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,378 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c93…33d5backed Alliance | 1c | 10,110$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.29 | 484 | 37.6%182 W · 302 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +42%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0438…9d98backed Aurora Gaming | 65c | 2,571$1,677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$893.35 | 243 | 46.9%114 W · 129 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Alliance | 14c | 2,399$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.69 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Alliance | 22c | 2,219$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.62 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Alliance | 30c | 2,108$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.53 | 3,225 | 51.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L | +88.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Alliance | 30c | 1,950$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.88 | 4,228 | 49.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L | +59.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f9…d587backed Alliance | 14c | 1,764$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.05 | 350 | 33.4%117 W · 233 L | +22.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b8…9d1fbacked Alliance | 2c | 1,127$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 328 | 32.3%106 W · 222 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0af…3b75backed Aurora Gaming | 78c | 789.44$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.68 | 183 | 42.1%77 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…ef07backed Aurora Gaming | 75c | 784.77$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.65 | 154 | 48.7%75 W · 79 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Alliance | 14c | 592.08$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.55 | 1,398 | 48.4%676 W · 722 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x212e…791abacked Alliance | 19c | 530.18$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.16 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…fc02backed Alliance | 32c | 424.91$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.18 | 559 | 50.3%281 W · 278 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8034…2463backed Aurora Gaming | 74c | 400.04$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.75 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed Alliance | 11c | 400$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 783 | 48.4%379 W · 404 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Alliance | 32c | 360.56$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.94 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bec…7800backed Alliance | 4c | 353.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 334 | 48.2%161 W · 173 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eae…bd51backed Aurora Gaming | 74c | 337.57$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Alliance | 13c | 333.9$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.78 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf755…8e37backed Aurora Gaming | 76c | 294.29$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.71 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Alliance | 23c | 289.65$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.33 | 3,910 | 36.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L | -197.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Alliance | 31c | 286.22$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.23 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4687…8d42backed Alliance | 38c | 253.34$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.28 | 529 | 47.1%249 W · 280 L | -14.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef66…f839backed Aurora Gaming | 67c | 234.79$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.98 | 130 | 36.9%48 W · 82 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa27c…ab67backed Aurora Gaming | 64c | 205.25$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.89 | 450 | 58.9%265 W · 185 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Alliance | 27c | 165.85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.19 | 2,604 | 52.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L | +98.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34f9…12ebbacked Alliance | 31c | 142.11$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.96 | 268 | 36.6%98 W · 170 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Alliance | 19c | 139.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 1,109 | 50.5%560 W · 549 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…aefdbacked Alliance | 35c | 137.22$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.03 | 840 | 37.9%318 W · 522 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b2…dcc5backed Alliance | 19c | 136.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdca…66ebbacked Aurora Gaming | 60c | 117.13$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.85 | 284 | 43.7%124 W · 160 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3be…f543backed Aurora Gaming | 69c | 114.04$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 229 | 52%119 W · 110 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ef…813bbacked Alliance | 36c | 98.54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Aurora Gaming | 75c | 98.5$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 589 | 61.3%361 W · 228 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc8…f527backed Alliance | 36c | 96.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.62 | 488 | 26.2%128 W · 360 L | -44.3wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x443c…d83abacked Aurora Gaming | 61c | 94.51$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.86 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +11.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…4c25backed Aurora Gaming | 72c | 89.1$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Alliance | 13c | 76.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,102 | 16.8%353 W · 1,749 L | -286.5wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf462…2cd4backed Aurora Gaming | 69c | 71.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Aurora Gaming | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 295 | 55.3%163 W · 132 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Alliance | 31c | 55.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Alliance | 28c | 54.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 1,304 | 26.5%345 W · 959 L | -89.4wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x901f…b8b0backed Aurora Gaming | 71c | 52.59$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 295 | 58.6%173 W · 122 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Alliance | 23c | 51.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 1,038 | 39.9%414 W · 624 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21b1…b066backed Aurora Gaming | 77c | 50.86$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed Alliance | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 1,216 | 40.1%488 W · 728 L | -65.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Aurora Gaming | 75c | 46.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 2,061 | 50.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…a81dbacked Aurora Gaming | 75c | 39.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 271 | 50.6%137 W · 134 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5887…994ebacked Alliance | 28c | 39.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…8dbbbacked Alliance | 28c | 39.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 260 | 37.3%97 W · 163 L | -17.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…a236backed Alliance | 27c | 39.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 250 | 42.8%107 W · 143 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb441…f757backed Aurora Gaming | 76c | 37.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 187 | 54%101 W · 86 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ab…5080backed Aurora Gaming | 75c | 35.04$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1512…68f3backed Aurora Gaming | 71c | 19.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 291 | 53.6%156 W · 135 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Alliance - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Alliance (BO3) - DraculaN PlayoffsAlliance won
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Alliance - Map 2 WinnerAlliance won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Alliance (+1.5)Alliance won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.