CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Alliance (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f81b2db1d74c77e7884c8a3ac581ea321edb60473140963294eed9c41c38d6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Allianceof Aurora Gaming, Alliance
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,527
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,944
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,527 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Aurora Gaming | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 670 | 41.8%280 W · 390 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5c…a375backed Alliance | 53c | 6,535$3,492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,042.78 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b59…3aa6backed Alliance | 50c | 5,091$2,544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,547.26 | 849 | 58.3%495 W · 354 L | +60.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f24…c911backed Aurora Gaming | 49c | 3,160$1,543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,543.09 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Alliance | 19c | 2,443$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,968 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7673…fa40backed Alliance | 50c | 1,761$874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886.89 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b4…c4adbacked Aurora Gaming | 49c | 1,475$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.52 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5e…81ffbacked Alliance | 50c | 1,131$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.6 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7787backed Aurora Gaming | 46c | 1,079$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.26 | 207 | 43%89 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed Alliance | 50c | 991.22$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.55 | 593 | 43.2%256 W · 337 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…b3d4backed Alliance | 50c | 970$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -6.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0698…b91dbacked Aurora Gaming | 46c | 817.48$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.04 | 156 | 37.2%58 W · 98 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Aurora Gaming | 51c | 684.17$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.11 | 1,714 | 46.7%801 W · 913 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9919…f261backed Alliance | 48c | 605.5$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.86 | 418 | 47.1%197 W · 221 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ff…6632backed Aurora Gaming | 50c | 598.97$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.48 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d1…f540backed Alliance | 49c | 574.98$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.24 | 178 | 49.4%88 W · 90 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Alliance | 20c | 500$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 812 | 44.3%360 W · 452 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8be…444ebacked Aurora Gaming | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x55e5…df30backed Aurora Gaming | 46c | 420.7$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.52 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…3397backed Alliance | 37c | 394.83$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.87 | 277 | 44.4%123 W · 154 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cb…85babacked Aurora Gaming | 49c | 315.26$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.87 | 156 | 48.1%75 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6179…6f80backed Alliance | 50c | 291$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.5 | 503 | 40.2%202 W · 301 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Aurora Gaming | 46c | 275.78$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.96 | 854 | 46.4%396 W · 458 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Alliance | 50c | 275.05$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.57 | 333 | 52.6%175 W · 158 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x354f…95f8backed Aurora Gaming | 46c | 261.59$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.33 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde19…3a14backed Aurora Gaming | 46c | 256.58$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.03 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…8023backed Alliance | 48c | 220.94$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.92 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Alliance | 50c | 218.25$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.13 | 1,310 | 53.7%703 W · 607 L | +32.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3996…1b4fbacked Alliance | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…2877backed Alliance | 50c | 194$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 648 | 54.3%352 W · 296 L | +25.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf437…ff9bbacked Aurora Gaming | 52c | 186.09$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.13 | 290 | 52.4%152 W · 138 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd7…33d9backed Aurora Gaming | 46c | 178.8$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6041…3326backed Alliance | 49c | 150.26$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.63 | 157 | 56.1%88 W · 69 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2609…e07abacked Alliance | 49c | 148.48$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.77 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +94%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Alliance | 50c | 140.64$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.46 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c1…b6f3backed Alliance | 48c | 121.1$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.97 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2a…4e1fbacked Alliance | 50c | 116.98$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.49 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0c…d43abacked Alliance | 50c | 109.86$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.93 | 464 | 47.6%221 W · 243 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5668…eababacked Aurora Gaming | 51c | 104.67$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.38 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdefd…afbcbacked Aurora Gaming | 52c | 103.53$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.21 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…2befbacked Alliance | 15c | 102.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +172.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d72…5f50backed Aurora Gaming | 46c | 102.57$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.18 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Alliance | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | +9.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00b7…5b93backed Alliance | 50c | 87.3$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.65 | 196 | 53.1%104 W · 92 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…a8b3backed Alliance | 50c | 77.6$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 400 | 50.8%203 W · 197 L | -15.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Alliance | 24c | 59.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 2,102 | 16.8%353 W · 1,749 L | -286.5wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Alliance | 50c | 57.77$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.89 | 762 | 48.4%369 W · 393 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff4…d735backed Aurora Gaming | 34c | 43.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…221abacked Aurora Gaming | 51c | 38.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 1,078 | 32%345 W · 733 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Alliance | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 771 | 46%355 W · 416 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99d1…ee7abacked Alliance | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15f2…f5e7backed Aurora Gaming | 46c | 29.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x949c…ab2cbacked Alliance | 67c | 29.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -6.7wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -21%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x14d1…6e8ebacked Alliance | 66c | 23.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10ad…827cbacked Aurora Gaming | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 306 | 39.5%121 W · 185 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…6237backed Aurora Gaming | 59c | 17.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd30…9a01backed Aurora Gaming | 64c | 15.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 287 | 61.3%176 W · 111 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe53b…fe03backed Aurora Gaming | 74c | 13.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 413 | 72.2%298 W · 115 L | +25.0wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Alliance (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Alliance (BO3) - DraculaN PlayoffsAlliance won
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Alliance - Map 1 WinnerAurora Gaming won
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Alliance - Map 2 WinnerAlliance won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.