NHL · resolved market
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6e23aca8b5264e3d32742ccb04d78cc8f8d83b6bd4ba2c040a045907b6526e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Maple Leafsof Avalanche, Maple Leafs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,963
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,718
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,963 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07c8…2696backed Avalanche | 49c | 5,371$2,632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,631.74 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Maple Leafs | 51c | 5,133$2,608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,524.76 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Maple Leafs | 53c | 4,271$2,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,007.58 | 566 | 49.5%280 W · 286 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Avalanche | 48c | 3,877$1,868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,867.58 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d2…d3ebbacked Avalanche | 50c | 2,109$1,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,054.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee9f…b134backed Maple Leafs | 50c | 2,109$1,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,054.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed Avalanche | 47c | 1,596$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Avalanche | 49c | 1,500$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735 | 976 | 51.6%504 W · 472 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Maple Leafs | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bca…5c8dbacked Maple Leafs | 54c | 925.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.93 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Maple Leafs | 52c | 833.65$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.15 | 751 | 55.8%419 W · 332 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Maple Leafs | 52c | 691.26$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.23 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Maple Leafs | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Avalanche | 50c | 489$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.5 | 196 | 45.9%90 W · 106 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Avalanche | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 472 | 56.8%268 W · 204 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1307…d640backed Maple Leafs | 50c | 403.98$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.99 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Avalanche | 47c | 400$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Maple Leafs | 77c | 391.32$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.32 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8861…e19fbacked Maple Leafs | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 177 | 53.1%94 W · 83 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Avalanche | 47c | 361.7$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0f…a571backed Avalanche | 48c | 312.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 187 | 44.9%84 W · 103 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Avalanche | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Avalanche | 26c | 243.88$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.39 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Avalanche | 46c | 220$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 624 | 47.3%295 W · 329 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Avalanche | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Avalanche | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 702 | 49%344 W · 358 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Avalanche | 47c | 186.27$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.55 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Avalanche | 47c | 173.38$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 201 | 45.8%92 W · 109 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Maple Leafs | 54c | 158.38$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.85 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…1efbbacked Avalanche | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Avalanche | 42c | 140.1$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.56 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Avalanche | 48c | 120$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 432 | 50.9%220 W · 212 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed Maple Leafs | 50c | 101$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.5 | 543 | 49.5%269 W · 274 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcff6…09bdbacked Avalanche | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a3…790fbacked Avalanche | 48c | 91.17$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.76 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42bf…30f7backed Avalanche | 48c | 90.4$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.39 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Maple Leafs | 62c | 90$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Maple Leafs | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x966d…eaa5backed Maple Leafs | 54c | 70$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b49…d0dfbacked Maple Leafs | 54c | 67.74$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Maple Leafs | 50c | 52.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.31 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9048…07f2backed Avalanche | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…6a69backed Avalanche | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 231 | 58%134 W · 97 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Maple Leafs | 52c | 48.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeba…d2d8backed Avalanche | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 91 | 49.5%45 W · 46 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe71…72a4backed Maple Leafs | 54c | 38.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Maple Leafs | 51c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Avalanche | 48c | 30.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb2…17b2backed Avalanche | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)this page
- Maple Leafs vs. AvalancheMaple Leafs won
- Maple Leafs vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.