Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-02-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf716264ca8c6024558c2d852901ef1afc273aa259b6d038be350b3356780d413
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $221,703
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $228,908
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $221,703 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Yes | 0c | 53,000$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7557…02b4backed Yes | 1c | 27,988$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa051…54ebbacked Yes | 5c | 10,883$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa196…5b78backed Yes | 4c | 8,015$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.44 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 4c | 7,100$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.96 | 71 | 11.3%8 W · 63 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Yes | 3c | 6,456$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.96 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 7c | 4,714$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.48 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed Yes | 4c | 4,300$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b55…9e46backed Yes | 0c | 4,165$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbece…113abacked Yes | 4c | 2,508$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 5c | 2,360$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.99 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…17bfbacked Yes | 4c | 2,268$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.03 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 4c | 2,250$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd96d…cf14backed Yes | 4c | 1,617$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62ca…1760backed Yes | 3c | 1,545$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.53 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 3c | 1,500$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a6…2347backed Yes | 4c | 1,319$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…38adbacked Yes | 4c | 1,250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d9…f193backed Yes | 1c | 1,200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2263…ac78backed Yes | 4c | 1,191$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca1…4268backed Yes | 4c | 1,153$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x819f…70bcbacked Yes | 4c | 1,114$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.67 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85a1…a640backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb779…ab22backed Yes | 4c | 827.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8248…2d68backed Yes | 4c | 800$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes | 4c | 800$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8675…e850backed Yes | 5c | 718.29$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9055…12cebacked Yes | 3c | 676.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 3c | 620.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +106.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd121…b0a5backed Yes | 4c | 589.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d74…cfb2backed Yes | 4c | 513.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa69a…3360backed Yes | 4c | 512.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5427…bb86backed Yes | 4c | 363.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.25per pick | 34cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc514…e9b4backed Yes | 6c | 333$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228c…0fb0backed Yes | 4c | 270.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6aa…8882backed Yes | 4c | 270.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…ea80backed Yes | 4c | 261.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…a4f0backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9973…cc32backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…d6edbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…4c96backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 199.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 7c | 149.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-02-21?this page
- Will FC Bayern München vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw?No won
- Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-02-21?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.