Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-02-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd737f17171a730a9d5934b1a90c09cc09dfc7e576a0799bedf663ba1a7b98876
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $717,737
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $747,462
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $717,737 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed No | 10c | 70,144$7,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,014.44 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72b4…7d67backed No | 11c | 48,590$5,345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,344.89 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd303…b09bbacked No | 13c | 35,000$4,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,599.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 4c | 29,960$1,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,123.99 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2759…2b38backed No | 7c | 28,441$1,859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,858.92 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed No | 11c | 20,774$2,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,285.17 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 12c | 20,148$2,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,420.69 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 14c | 20,000$2,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,799.99 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 9c | 18,440$1,581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,581.26 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3212…634ebacked No | 12c | 16,278$1,994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,993.56 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa196…5b78backed No | 13c | 16,000$2,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,079.98 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 12c | 14,196$1,679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,679.45 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…fdc0backed No | 1c | 11,350$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.64 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…9ce7backed No | 14c | 10,000$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,399.99 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 10c | 8,608$861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860.62 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b62…2e59backed No | 12c | 8,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x127f…8a29backed No | 4c | 6,499$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.98 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005c…a987backed No | 13c | 6,047$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.04 | 113 | 54.9%62 W · 51 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd05f…8777backed No | 13c | 6,000$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -7.8wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x585c…f0a7backed No | 13c | 6,000$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.99 | 59 | 23.7%14 W · 45 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed No | 11c | 5,600$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa051…54ebbacked No | 15c | 4,690$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed No | 11c | 4,050$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.5 | 71 | 11.3%8 W · 63 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e41…a1c1backed No | 11c | 3,545$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70af…26fdbacked No | 15c | 3,333$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -48%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 12c | 2,450$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.03 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9711…c35ebacked No | 1c | 2,379$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 8c | 1,961$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.64 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed No | 7c | 1,730$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 240 | 50.4%121 W · 119 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86be…4490backed No | 11c | 1,709$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 8c | 1,354$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.66 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked No | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +7.6wins | +0.22per pick | 31cpaid | +85.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee0…9c9abacked No | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2263…ac78backed No | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 2c | 662.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2d…54cfbacked No | 8c | 622.22$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 3c | 598.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +106.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked No | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc550…8e46backed No | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e1…e114backed No | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca61…f06abacked No | 10c | 480$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked No | 11c | 454.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 3c | 435.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…89bcbacked No | 12c | 416.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked No | 11c | 400$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 11c | 390.51$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.28 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed No | 12c | 369.88$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.39 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed No | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 175 | 47.4%83 W · 92 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked No | 14c | 351.14$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.15 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +27%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc514…e9b4backed No | 16c | 314.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.35 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked No | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed No | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked No | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…4c57backed No | 3c | 286$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…e1b2backed No | 9c | 270$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2af6…b030backed No | 15c | 266.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed No | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…0a8dbacked No | 10c | 240$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 16c | 226.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.32 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed No | 10c | 202.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9f…b8cebacked No | 15c | 192$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49fa…f904backed No | 16c | 151.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x62ca…1760backed No | 11c | 150.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf5…d32ebacked No | 17c | 147.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…c1f9backed No | 11c | 141.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c35…afa8backed No | 11c | 141.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d72…c356backed No | 11c | 140$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c14…ffa5backed No | 10c | 126.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed No | 12c | 122.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 109 | 43.1%47 W · 62 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 11c | 119.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ce…9e59backed No | 11c | 118.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d22…040cbacked No | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…ea80backed No | 11c | 115.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41c8…424fbacked No | 13c | 113.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaeed…074bbacked No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6c…a67dbacked No | 14c | 79.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43a1…2425backed Yes | 78c | 51.92$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed56…a1f2backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-02-21?this page
- Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-02-21?No won
- Will FC Bayern München vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.