Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf720cbe7585cab35e4a5575d818126d327f6424a51e55106fb2856b290250856
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,079
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,013
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,079 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 46c | 993.83$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.78 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 577.09$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.09 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 520.34$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.78 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 299.92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 19c | 231.91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.86 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 67c | 194.27$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.02 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 172.77$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.79 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 114.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.21 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 78c | 103.93$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.59 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 70c | 98.54$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.98 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 98.32$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 30c | 88.13$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.11 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ae…033dbacked Yes | 33c | 83.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.79 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 81.43$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.04 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 58c | 77.87$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.62 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 75.72$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.56 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 34c | 75.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.95 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 37c | 68.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes | 30c | 60.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.47 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 53c | 55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 30c | 53.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 70c | 49.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 35c | 49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 33c | 46.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 29c | 42.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 34c | 42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8042…96cfbacked Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 51c | 37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 71c | 34.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 68c | 29.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 61c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 78c | 26.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3b…d0a9backed No | 71c | 25.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 76cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed No | 66c | 20.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 64c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 71c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 71c | 15.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.