MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf72d0901d7b16b82917c4303c3adbbaab792f75c85a3ab9a8f26d817010c4989
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,999
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,629
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,999 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 52c | 12,000$6,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,239.95 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 48c | 11,985$5,753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,231.77 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 45c | 6,279$2,826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,825.74 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 55c | 2,004$1,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$902 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 55c | 1,549$852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.05 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 47c | 1,510$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.98 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec11…953fbacked Under | 52c | 1,198$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.08 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 55c | 1,003$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.5 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 55c | 318.85$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.67 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bec…7800backed Under | 56c | 307.2$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.17 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 51c | 283.79$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.29 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Under | 55c | 272.72$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.72 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Over | 54c | 235.1$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.41 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Under | 54c | 231.48$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.48 | 812 | 57.3%465 W · 347 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 55c | 220$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 55c | 185$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.25 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 55c | 122.2$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 58c | 111.21$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.71 | 873 | 52.7%460 W · 413 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Over | 46c | 94$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.85 | 539 | 50.6%273 W · 266 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93a2…5181backed Under | 45c | 71.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.32 | 195 | 42.6%83 W · 112 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Under | 54c | 69$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 54c | 63.08$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 55c | 55.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.07 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 53c | 46.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb9…c8fabacked Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Over | 41c | 37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd8…f306backed Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 192 | 52.6%101 W · 91 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 55c | 34.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 58c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcefe…7ff4backed Under | 56c | 33.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Yankees vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5this page
- New York Yankees vs. Washington NationalsNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Washington NationalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.