MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03a84e380e67121546431084881426b217e8ae7482dea4afed50cb3dd3867eb3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Yankeesof New York Yankees, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,592
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,757
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,592 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x55a1…db28backed New York Yankees | 53c | 9,758$5,171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,587.67 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Washington Nationals | 47c | 7,653$3,597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,596.98 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Washington Nationals | 57c | 4,922$2,826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,826.48 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa77…15a5backed New York Yankees | 49c | 4,898$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,497.96 | 232 | 55.6%129 W · 103 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Yankees | 21c | 2,759$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,168.17 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed New York Yankees | 33c | 2,393$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,603.31 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfae1…fdc1backed Washington Nationals | 77c | 1,288$992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$991.76 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Washington Nationals | 47c | 720.88$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.81 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Washington Nationals | 48c | 508.59$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.12 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Washington Nationals | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 297 | 52.5%156 W · 141 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Washington Nationals | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked New York Yankees | 33c | 395.61$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.06 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Washington Nationals | 80c | 390$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Washington Nationals | 74c | 318.12$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.32 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Washington Nationals | 47c | 315.97$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.02 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Washington Nationals | 74c | 315.44$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.91 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Washington Nationals | 80c | 300.11$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.09 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed New York Yankees | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed New York Yankees | 27c | 299.97$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.98 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Washington Nationals | 72c | 182.96$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.39 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked New York Yankees | 52c | 160$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.8 | 450 | 45.8%206 W · 244 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed New York Yankees | 52c | 153.84$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.84 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Washington Nationals | 48c | 152$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.96 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Washington Nationals | 73c | 133.64$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.22 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6b…e0f3backed Washington Nationals | 48c | 130.2$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 172 | 53.5%92 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Yankees | 52c | 121.34$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.24 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Washington Nationals | 48c | 119.91$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.18 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c85…9634backed New York Yankees | 22c | 115.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Washington Nationals | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Washington Nationals | 47c | 98.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.53 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Washington Nationals | 74c | 97.23$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.53 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Washington Nationals | 56c | 88.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.03 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked New York Yankees | 33c | 81.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.77 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5a…9d75backed New York Yankees | 26c | 76.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.9 | 105 | 15.2%16 W · 89 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked New York Yankees | 53c | 75.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.9 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed New York Yankees | 44c | 68.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.48 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Washington Nationals | 73c | 66.43$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.49 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked New York Yankees | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Washington Nationals | 61c | 58.85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3255…ffb9backed New York Yankees | 53c | 56.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 180 | 53.9%97 W · 83 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Washington Nationals | 66c | 54.22$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.95 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Washington Nationals | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed New York Yankees | 49c | 49.87$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed New York Yankees | 28c | 45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed New York Yankees | 35c | 44.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked Washington Nationals | 48c | 39.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 172 | 55.8%96 W · 76 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed New York Yankees | 52c | 38.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed New York Yankees | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked New York Yankees | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed New York Yankees | 51c | 37.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Washington Nationals | 66c | 35.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3146…d153backed Washington Nationals | 79c | 35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…2d27backed New York Yankees | 42c | 34.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked New York Yankees | 71c | 32.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked Washington Nationals | 45c | 31.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed New York Yankees | 52c | 29.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 979 | 44.4%435 W · 544 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0f…2deebacked New York Yankees | 52c | 28.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 179 | 52%93 W · 86 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…16c9backed New York Yankees | 53c | 27.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe96e…f337backed New York Yankees | 52c | 21.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…6d07backed Washington Nationals | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 516 | 56.6%292 W · 224 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed New York Yankees | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe14a…62bebacked Washington Nationals | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 151 | 45.7%69 W · 82 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Washington Nationals | 73c | 19.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 314 | 46.8%147 W · 167 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Washington Nationals | 74c | 17.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 653 | 59.6%389 W · 264 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)this page
- New York Yankees vs. Washington NationalsNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Washington NationalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.