Australian A League · resolved market
Will Adelaide United FC win on 2026-02-08?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf74cb0a061cefd961c1cf25e01049535932475e70f71f195ea722f186d196d53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,940
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,534
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,940 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 10c | 5,752$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.57 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Yes | 9c | 2,624$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.87 | 94 | 31.9%30 W · 64 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb1…984ebacked Yes | 30c | 1,700$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.3 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +4.7wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…fdc0backed Yes | 2c | 1,134$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdecf…caf2backed Yes | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa524…1252backed Yes | 32c | 937.5$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Yes | 35c | 917.14$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 36c | 894.4$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.7 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0438…9d98backed Yes | 32c | 880$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.5 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8479…37f8backed Yes | 14c | 743$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.02 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Yes | 10c | 675.27$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.33 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 33c | 643.19$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.69 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 70c | 613.4$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.61 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Yes | 24c | 492.86$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 62c | 350$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133 | 104 | 48.1%50 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7100…b346backed Yes | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6aa…8882backed Yes | 20c | 319.43$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.01 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed No | 71c | 306$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.19 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4786…ff95backed No | 78c | 222.47$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…b8cabacked Yes | 33c | 211.94$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 72c | 210$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 140 | 47.1%66 W · 74 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed No | 75c | 169.89$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.09 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9d…c3eebacked Yes | 32c | 154.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.59 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4300…5c69backed Yes | 33c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 11c | 140.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d1…a6a0backed Yes | 42c | 136$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.71 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 193 | 45.1%87 W · 106 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 62c | 90$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 62c | 81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed No | 62c | 69$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed No | 62c | 67$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 74c | 60.12$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Yes | 23c | 57.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…b3c5backed No | 62c | 54$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed No | 62c | 54$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc16f…0f4fbacked No | 63c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14c7…ba3ebacked No | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84fc…9db4backed No | 62c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…f4b6backed No | 62c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed No | 62c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked No | 62c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked No | 62c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked No | 62c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 64c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed No | 62c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed No | 62c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked No | 62c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…22a9backed No | 62c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 79c | 33.42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed No | 64c | 31.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +10.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 131 | 49.6%65 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46af…1f6abacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5699…418dbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b5…798cbacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…856cbacked No | 62c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 62c | 23.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf104…d34cbacked No | 72c | 21.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a1…64a3backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6afd…5cb1backed No | 62c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…ccd1backed No | 62c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 68c | 17.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Adelaide United FC win on 2026-02-08?this page
- Will Adelaide United FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Newcastle United Jets FC win on 2026-02-08?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.