Australian A League · resolved market
Will Adelaide United FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76038b9ce5d79ddaa39c03d61b2d95fee86ebd25ef030666e285ae8fb5954238
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,650
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,756
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,650 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 73c | 3,890$2,842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,048.04 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2575…bf1ebacked Yes | 24c | 1,831$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.69 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dee…3d1bbacked No | 78c | 1,496$1,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…afb3backed Yes | 42c | 1,214$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 76c | 1,199$911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.68 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Yes | 22c | 1,096$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.09 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8069…30e3backed Yes | 21c | 953.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Yes | 17c | 850$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.5 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8479…37f8backed Yes | 13c | 751$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.63 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31e9…c554backed No | 75c | 629.33$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf45…1f5fbacked No | 78c | 629$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Yes | 28c | 605.69$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5858…dc6bbacked Yes | 20c | 510$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked No | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 23c | 432.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 77c | 424.1$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.54 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 23c | 417.78$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.09 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa9…a36dbacked Yes | 22c | 370.13$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7100…b346backed Yes | 21c | 238.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Yes | 22c | 222.09$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.86 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | -10.2wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e5…292fbacked Yes | 24c | 165.4$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b35…12b3backed Yes | 22c | 151$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.92 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 25c | 147.11$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…5e6ebacked Yes | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Yes | 24c | 109.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 77c | 101.08$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 140 | 47.1%66 W · 74 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 21c | 93.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0438…9d98backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed No | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb03…5ae4backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked No | 61c | 41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 64 | 71.9%46 W · 18 L | +9.9wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 76c | 29.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 79c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed No | 79c | 19.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -7.5wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Adelaide United FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Adelaide United FC win on 2026-02-08?No won
- Will Newcastle United Jets FC win on 2026-02-08?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.