Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on May 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7530a161e228ab1f99feae16cf5316e395ff31ca2b8abbeeaf28c8142ac69b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,678
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,325
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,678 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 4c | 647.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 34c | 460.45$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.08 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 297.67$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.11 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 12c | 259.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed Yes | 47c | 252$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.84 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3277…f0b6backed Yes | 16c | 157.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb385…3824backed Yes | 18c | 137.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 19c | 131.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 65c | 131$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.33 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 22c | 101.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe713…c9a0backed Yes | 32c | 100.48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 78c | 95.1$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 24c | 87.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 75c | 84.3$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…bee4backed Yes | 25c | 84.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9701…921abacked Yes | 28c | 82.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 79c | 75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 18c | 71.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…1bc5backed No | 77c | 71.37$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 68c | 61.07$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 70c | 59.91$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 76c | 55.9$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 68c | 53$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa255…5cbcbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 42c | 47.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43df…8d83backed No | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1b…4b83backed No | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 33c | 35.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc00c…ab4abacked No | 70c | 34.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 54 | 79.6%43 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18c9…1e8abacked Yes | 31c | 33.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +6.5wins | +0.34per pick | 34cpaid | +195.8%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked No | 66c | 32.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 48c | 30.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…e43ebacked No | 76c | 27.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 180 | 60%108 W · 72 L | -21.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…860ebacked No | 66c | 22.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 67c | 22.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 70c | 21.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 21.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…76c2backed No | 75c | 21.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | -7.5wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 69c | 19.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on May 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on May 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C on May 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.