Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on May 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x853cb85c84178af41ce23f7d10f03cc6cc3dbd465316f67b8eac05d1b966b859
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,976
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,402
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,976 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 1c | 1,465$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 59c | 536.96$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.88 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 18c | 500.07$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.55 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked No | 3c | 483.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…d680backed No | 21c | 364.1$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.56 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 11c | 359.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.31 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe713…c9a0backed Yes | 72c | 261.26$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.43 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 36c | 259.17$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.55 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa1…f1e6backed Yes | 65c | 201.01$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.68 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 64c | 199.36$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.7 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 59c | 189.53$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.52 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 28c | 167.49$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.19 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 18c | 140.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa255…5cbcbacked Yes | 62c | 139.97$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.49 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 22c | 120$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 65c | 119.75$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.39 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 119.18$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.47 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 18c | 112.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf136…5941backed No | 25c | 110.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +5.2wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 30c | 109$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe092…dbb3backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 12c | 98.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18c9…1e8abacked No | 23c | 94.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +6.5wins | +0.34per pick | 34cpaid | +195.8%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 61c | 92.5$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.77 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 31c | 89.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 18c | 89.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 39c | 85.42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eae…ec7fbacked No | 29c | 81.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 58cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 80c | 79.76$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 66c | 79.01$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.21 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9701…921abacked Yes | 49c | 77.86$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.42 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 35c | 76.93$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.01 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 22c | 76.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 73c | 74.61$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 28c | 70.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 72c | 69.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 24c | 66.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ec…31b6backed No | 33c | 63.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +47%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 38c | 62.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 36c | 60.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.72 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 32c | 59.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.77 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed No | 24c | 55.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…76c2backed No | 68c | 54.27$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.98 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | -7.5wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 38c | 52.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 44c | 47.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 22c | 47.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 75c | 46.52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed Yes | 46c | 43.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 61c | 43.05$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed No | 24c | 41.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked No | 39c | 41.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 70c | 38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 65c | 32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked No | 47c | 30.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 62c | 30.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x364a…4363backed No | 66c | 30.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 68 | 63.2%43 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…bee4backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3277…f0b6backed No | 65c | 28.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked No | 36c | 27.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 129 | 55.8%72 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 77c | 25.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 67c | 25.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…860ebacked No | 63c | 23.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 68c | 21.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 75c | 20.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on May 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C on May 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.