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MLB · resolved market

Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$34,527
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$35,208

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,527 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xedf7…4003backed Under0c25,000$25 inLost-$2541637.5%156 W · 260 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bec…07a8backed Over51c2,000$1,020 inWon+$98024946.2%115 W · 134 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Under49c1,490$730 inLost-$7301,93453.5%1,034 W · 900 L+28.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f29…f03dbacked Over46c652.17$300 inWon+$352.1749145.2%222 W · 269 L-15.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x068c…582ebacked Under49c510.2$250 inLost-$25038555.3%213 W · 172 L+10.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under54c438.92$237 inLost-$237.028,39246.1%3,869 W · 4,523 L+32.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Under48c281.05$135 inLost-$134.93,60651%1,839 W · 1,767 L+55.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over47c259.15$121 inWon+$138.5811,80552.8%6,238 W · 5,567 L+218.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under37c221.57$83 inLost-$82.7712,33246.4%5,727 W · 6,605 L-67.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Under55c169.6$93 inLost-$93.281,08356.3%610 W · 473 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Under42c100.2$42 inLost-$42.086,31648.2%3,047 W · 3,269 L+180.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Over51c98.1$50 inWon+$47.6170555%388 W · 317 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over58c71$41 inWon+$29.5211,24251.5%5,789 W · 5,453 L+139.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Over61c60$37 inWon+$23.45,22554.5%2,850 W · 2,375 L+226.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Over52c59.44$31 inWon+$28.534,56849.1%2,243 W · 2,325 L-12.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b8d…bb92backed Under49c50$25 inLost-$24.560352.7%318 W · 285 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x398c…b9d8backed Under50c50$25 inLost-$2515138.4%58 W · 93 L-11.7wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-19.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x07c0…5dd2backed Over52c50$26 inWon+$2418458.2%107 W · 77 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa233…dfe8backed Under48c42.32$20 inLost-$20.135644.6%25 W · 31 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-24.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Over51c39.87$20 inWon+$19.543,07348%1,475 W · 1,598 L+16.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0954…012abacked Over52c38.46$20 inWon+$18.461,19753.9%645 W · 552 L+42.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under49c29.87$15 inLost-$14.641,27951.2%655 W · 624 L-19.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a0c…3d4dbacked Under50c20$10 inLost-$1017450.6%88 W · 86 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.