MLB · resolved market
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 12.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3359c84d844d2905c764e873095db6184ce7fe6cf404252a751744a92fab736e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,733
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,226
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,733 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78f4…4a4abacked Under | 3c | 3,029$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.88 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 12cpaid | +80.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e88…9b64backed Under | 5c | 2,400$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 9cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 54c | 1,493$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.95 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 38c | 898.49$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.86 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4c…39c0backed Under | 7c | 700$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Over | 65c | 615.38$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.38 | 321 | 66.4%213 W · 108 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55b5…1ec0backed Over | 58c | 252.25$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.94 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +90%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 37c | 215.33$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.77 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 40c | 169.53$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.72 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab4…5a40backed Over | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 42c | 145.67$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.41 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Over | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Under | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 56c | 54.75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 45c | 48.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ded…3350backed Under | 42c | 42.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 42c | 40.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0444…55a5backed Over | 61c | 25.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 59c | 18.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 12.5this page
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-4.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels won
- Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 10.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 11.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 13.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 14.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 5.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles AngelsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.