MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf79a115c0b2d97c2aec6921709b4d3617c9ef9ccc03f0e6fccdbc5ae234d8a7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,289
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,390
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,289 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 45c | 2,097$948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$948 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Over | 53c | 1,207$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.23 | 619 | 47.7%295 W · 324 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcab3…5e13backed Under | 2c | 900$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 55c | 532.84$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.02 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Under | 47c | 421.17$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.95 | 114 | 50.9%58 W · 56 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9309…c705backed Under | 8c | 400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87fa…12d0backed Over | 53c | 385.05$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.97 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9901…6adbbacked Under | 45c | 296.55$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.45 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Under | 44c | 269$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.61 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Over | 56c | 261.16$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.19 | 194 | 52.6%102 W · 92 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Over | 56c | 229.13$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.82 | 452 | 46.2%209 W · 243 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Over | 56c | 229.13$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.82 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 48c | 224.45$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.49 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Under | 47c | 186.56$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.68 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 23c | 185.28$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 56c | 173.86$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Over | 56c | 173.86$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 54c | 130$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.8 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Over | 55c | 118.08$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.14 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 45c | 96.7$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7da4…f0a4backed Under | 15c | 96.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | +11.3wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…4e0dbacked Over | 52c | 92.26$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.29 | 283 | 50.2%142 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 44c | 88.07$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e23…94b2backed Over | 54c | 71.02$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18ed…04cbbacked Over | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 44c | 66.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 56c | 64.48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.23 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 52c | 59.26$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x015d…7bc7backed Under | 48c | 57.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 45c | 42.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Under | 45c | 39.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked Over | 53c | 37.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bec…c707backed Over | 52c | 32.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 44c | 31.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Over | 55c | 24.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Under | 42c | 24.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…cbcdbacked Over | 52c | 23.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3a…e4f4backed Over | 52c | 19.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 57c | 18.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 57c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Texas RangersCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.