MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31d18cf2bcaf4e763e11d66a0cc2b43d411798a6c3fb72c81a84ca9d2ff5d260
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,351
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,839
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,351 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc33a…3da3backed Under | 54c | 5,474$2,956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,518.16 | 169 | 47.9%81 W · 88 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x762e…4bf0backed Under | 60c | 4,746$2,832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,914.11 | 245 | 51.8%127 W · 118 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 46c | 3,977$1,829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,829.36 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…d41cbacked Over | 56c | 3,894$2,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,180.86 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 54c | 1,936$1,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$885.4 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Over | 46c | 1,926$886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885.93 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 41c | 1,572$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.77 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 40c | 1,381$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.62 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 42c | 986.29$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.75 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 57c | 930.46$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.84 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Over | 43c | 786.02$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.5 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 57c | 425.92$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.39 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fe…f286backed Over | 47c | 265.56$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.7 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 53c | 224$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.28 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Over | 44c | 211.99$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.93 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40d2…312fbacked Under | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 228 | 51.3%117 W · 111 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 65c | 190.53$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.38 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 43c | 178.08$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.29 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 60c | 143.96$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.58 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 60c | 143.96$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.58 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 60c | 143.96$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.58 | 393 | 51.9%204 W · 189 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Under | 60c | 143.96$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.58 | 183 | 45.4%83 W · 100 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under | 60c | 143.96$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.58 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Under | 53c | 137.71$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.72 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 52c | 132.92$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.8 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 44c | 121.85$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.52 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Under | 58c | 102.03$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.85 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…9d57backed Over | 42c | 94.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Under | 60c | 81.33$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 377 | 47.2%178 W · 199 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked Over | 43c | 69.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 112 | 45.5%51 W · 61 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cb…a917backed Under | 54c | 45.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 207 | 51.2%106 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x383d…87eabacked Over | 42c | 40.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 137 | 43.8%60 W · 77 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Under | 60c | 40.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 294 | 50.7%149 W · 145 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7de8…0a3bbacked Over | 48c | 40.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Under | 57c | 40.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 194 | 52.6%102 W · 92 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Over | 46c | 39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 39c | 39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 45c | 31.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad51…d76dbacked Under | 57c | 30.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Under | 54c | 30.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 366 | 49.2%180 W · 186 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked Under | 57c | 25.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x104b…ed6bbacked Under | 57c | 25.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ec…7b98backed Under | 60c | 23.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bec…c707backed Under | 57c | 19.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd074…5a54backed Under | 53c | 19.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 162 | 56.2%91 W · 71 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Texas RangersCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.