MLB · resolved market
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0873d1a785c36bb846fb6926dba3ac78e5c92a2f18be6af8bb59fdf86db6218
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof Texas Rangers, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,447
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,248
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,447 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe1a2…14b8backed Texas Rangers | 35c | 9,961$3,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,486.76 | 182 | 41.2%75 W · 107 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Cincinnati Reds | 75c | 3,149$2,362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$787.34 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 2,802$1,556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,246.39 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…9504backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 2,440$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.39 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 2,279$1,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,012.19 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Texas Rangers | 44c | 1,744$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.34 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x128a…a1b0backed Texas Rangers | 43c | 786.66$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.02 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -5.0wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cincinnati Reds | 76c | 545.83$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.77 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Texas Rangers | 46c | 543$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.78 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Cincinnati Reds | 75c | 527.5$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.88 | 1,947 | 53.1%1,033 W · 914 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff8…8a76backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 512.74$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.48 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 66c | 496.27$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.11 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 439.14$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.83 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Texas Rangers | 21c | 386.26$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.04 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Cincinnati Reds | 79c | 307.97$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.67 | 163 | 51.5%84 W · 79 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Texas Rangers | 42c | 301.63$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.68 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8900…a444backed Texas Rangers | 41c | 297.82$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.1 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Texas Rangers | 44c | 289.92$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.56 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…f50dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 220.12$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.65 | 187 | 54%101 W · 86 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7908…5f64backed Texas Rangers | 43c | 202.23$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked Texas Rangers | 41c | 195.03$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.96 | 112 | 45.5%51 W · 61 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Cincinnati Reds | 64c | 190.78$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.88 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 177.15$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.63 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Texas Rangers | 41c | 176.95$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.55 | 194 | 52.6%102 W · 92 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…4e0dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 115.24$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.94 | 283 | 50.2%142 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 72c | 111.28$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 110$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d14…ff3ebacked Texas Rangers | 44c | 109.82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 128 | 45.3%58 W · 70 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…8436backed Texas Rangers | 44c | 106.3$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.77 | 276 | 44.9%124 W · 152 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Texas Rangers | 41c | 96.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 92.16$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.31 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 88.46$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.8 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Cincinnati Reds | 75c | 81.85$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 81.44$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.68 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 77.83$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.24 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked Texas Rangers | 41c | 71.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 69.86$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…df5fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 398 | 50.3%200 W · 198 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e96…f2debacked Texas Rangers | 43c | 52.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9d…7d9ebacked Texas Rangers | 21c | 47.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeac9…4092backed Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 46.72$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd364…5115backed Texas Rangers | 44c | 41.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe136…b79fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 37.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfaf…064abacked Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…cbcdbacked Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 33.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250b…383fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 33.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…93ebbacked Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 32.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Cincinnati Reds | 75c | 31.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bec…c707backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 30.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94d4…18f9backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 30.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b02…454fbacked Texas Rangers | 44c | 28.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d72…c356backed Texas Rangers | 44c | 28.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 156 | 48.7%76 W · 80 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5870…276ebacked Texas Rangers | 43c | 26.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -50%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7be…908dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 68c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa427…f87fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 21.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 19.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Cincinnati Reds | 72c | 14.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 881 | 53.7%473 W · 408 L | +40.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Texas RangersCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.