MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7a6d0d1061975ddaa71a648f62994e47ee1cdd5b86025318729953e7eb6f137
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $763
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $763
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $763 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Boston Red Sox | 72c | 275.18$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Boston Red Sox | 72c | 224.81$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.04 | 4,427 | 47.5%2,101 W · 2,326 L | -77.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Yankees | 27c | 173.65$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.89 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked New York Yankees | 29c | 137.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 802 | 43.3%347 W · 455 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed New York Yankees | 27c | 106$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 9,891 | 46.4%4,594 W · 5,297 L | +40.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Boston Red Sox | 76c | 64.79$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed New York Yankees | 36c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 303 | 40.6%123 W · 180 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Boston Red Sox | 71c | 19.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e0…67c9backed Boston Red Sox | 72c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc2…d7c0backed Boston Red Sox | 72c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc02…fee9backed Boston Red Sox | 72c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6266…19fcbacked Boston Red Sox | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x633c…d9e8backed Boston Red Sox | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York YankeesBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. New York YankeesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.