MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x866323766a502ccf3ac17bccd4c7ce673f9ddf6690d3f47d00e38a3bdbcb7a84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,753
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,182
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,753 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc0f…b9d0backed Over | 47c | 3,088$1,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,448.22 | 102 | 39.2%40 W · 62 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 57c | 2,179$1,243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$936.16 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 45c | 1,817$818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.71 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 55c | 1,668$917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.6 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 47c | 1,316$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.34 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 48c | 903.94$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.3 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 55c | 545.45$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.45 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 55c | 488.41$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.67 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 38c | 418.77$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.43 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 57c | 414.88$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.72 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 55c | 379.53$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.04 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Under | 54c | 333.33$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.33 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed Under | 53c | 235$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.45 | 187 | 41.2%77 W · 110 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 54c | 213.48$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.2 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd879…2f44backed Over | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 80c | 179.9$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.76 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 41c | 143.1$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.05 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Under | 56c | 142.86$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.86 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 53c | 140.93$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.24 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 31c | 116.43$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.82 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 46c | 113.17$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.96 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Under | 55c | 102.53$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.14 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Over | 46c | 89.06$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.97 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 36c | 87$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 55c | 80.01$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Under | 54c | 80$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 449 | 49.2%221 W · 228 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Under | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 312 | 50%156 W · 156 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 53c | 78.72$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1c…0be3backed Over | 47c | 78.72$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 46c | 70.81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 38c | 68.36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.22 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…a8efbacked Over | 46c | 65.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Under | 55c | 55.6$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe67c…33f2backed Over | 47c | 51.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 51c | 48.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3f…7320backed Under | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b95…5733backed Over | 56c | 46.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Under | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 49c | 41.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe581…d77abacked Over | 59c | 38.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8263…e0f1backed Over | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 347 | 54.8%190 W · 157 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Under | 54c | 25.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Over | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 55c | 24.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 52c | 20.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 59c | 20.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f0…e7b3backed Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3250…60fabacked Under | 54c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York YankeesBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. New York YankeesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.