MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24e135d282cfa923c9ca10239f8e30dbcd87472a8b1978e58146ba78a0ab2630
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,865
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,890
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,865 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b1e…65c1backed Under | 43c | 1,882$809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,072.83 | 299 | 48.8%146 W · 153 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 54c | 1,314$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.34 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 56c | 1,114$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.16 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed Under | 65c | 1,074$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.99 | 187 | 41.2%77 W · 110 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 43c | 542.88$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.39 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 55c | 516.45$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.06 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 35c | 492$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.2 | 494 | 50%247 W · 247 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 35c | 308.1$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.84 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 277.01$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.98 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 38c | 207.97$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.87 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Under | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 35c | 198.26$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.39 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 40c | 196.87$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.71 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 35c | 192$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 64c | 180$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.3 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dec…c92dbacked Under | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 104 | 59.6%62 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 44c | 103.65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.03 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b95…5733backed Over | 62c | 68.66$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.79 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 33c | 67.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.16 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe581…d77abacked Over | 57c | 62.89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.59 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 54c | 58.82$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 34c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 37c | 54.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Over | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 211 | 49.3%104 W · 107 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…b8a1backed Over | 66c | 43.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 284 | 56.7%161 W · 123 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaab4…5a40backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Under | 38c | 29.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 59c | 29.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed Over | 64c | 25.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8263…e0f1backed Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 347 | 54.8%190 W · 157 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 64c | 16.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York YankeesBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. New York YankeesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.