MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1903b90204e3140f56751bea9d4b0b464a41316123f80635a6fb5619b4dd948c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,135
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,101
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,135 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Boston Red Sox | 55c | 2,303$1,261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,041.67 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed New York Yankees | 46c | 2,293$1,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,047.27 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed New York Yankees | 68c | 858.2$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.58 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Yankees | 43c | 621.66$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.12 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0874…6277backed New York Yankees | 2c | 500.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.19per pick | 20cpaid | +112.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Boston Red Sox | 32c | 468.75$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.75 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked New York Yankees | 20c | 408.64$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.32 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Boston Red Sox | 60c | 193$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.2 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Boston Red Sox | 61c | 185.96$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.48 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac15…75a4backed New York Yankees | 48c | 151.58$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Boston Red Sox | 67c | 141.06$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.78 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Boston Red Sox | 32c | 125$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 799 | 43.2%345 W · 454 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed New York Yankees | 31c | 121.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Boston Red Sox | 32c | 108.7$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.92 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Boston Red Sox | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,040 | 51.8%539 W · 501 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Boston Red Sox | 59c | 92.31$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.85 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked New York Yankees | 17c | 87.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 1,728 | 50.4%871 W · 857 L | +57.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed New York Yankees | 30c | 87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 573 | 46.9%269 W · 304 L | +14.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe046…9bc6backed Boston Red Sox | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 111 | 58.6%65 W · 46 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed New York Yankees | 16c | 68.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdca…5382backed Boston Red Sox | 22c | 64.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.46 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed New York Yankees | 31c | 57.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Boston Red Sox | 54c | 54.34$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Boston Red Sox | 32c | 51.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.89 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x165d…a4d5backed Boston Red Sox | 60c | 50.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1026…e794backed Boston Red Sox | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0e…704abacked Boston Red Sox | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…0adfbacked Boston Red Sox | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed New York Yankees | 33c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Yankees | 40c | 44.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked New York Yankees | 42c | 29.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4788…6bc3backed Boston Red Sox | 69c | 20.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…c916backed Boston Red Sox | 60c | 19.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc38…bd83backed New York Yankees | 68c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x627c…aa80backed New York Yankees | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York YankeesBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. New York YankeesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.