MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b123a12e11b957f494113e47e95ff276d85945eebf7d4b82debab25fd853135
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,603
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,676
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,603 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Boston Red Sox | 61c | 10,340$6,261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,079.28 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Yankees | 40c | 5,608$2,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,241.81 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaca0…9b86backed New York Yankees | 40c | 2,535$1,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014.01 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Boston Red Sox | 60c | 999.98$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.99 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed New York Yankees | 40c | 901.12$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.45 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed New York Yankees | 41c | 731.69$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.99 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed New York Yankees | 38c | 697$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.86 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Boston Red Sox | 61c | 599.99$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…bb62backed New York Yankees | 23c | 517.65$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 165 | 43%71 W · 94 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Boston Red Sox | 60c | 514.43$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.77 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Boston Red Sox | 60c | 440$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed New York Yankees | 38c | 434.08$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.35 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Boston Red Sox | 60c | 405.83$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.52 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31b7…21fbbacked New York Yankees | 39c | 380$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.2 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c88…5463backed New York Yankees | 40c | 362.5$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Boston Red Sox | 72c | 355.4$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.66 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…3c1ebacked Boston Red Sox | 62c | 330$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.4 | 483 | 54.7%264 W · 219 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b1…e904backed New York Yankees | 39c | 300$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 693 | 51.9%360 W · 333 L | +26.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Yankees | 28c | 295.24$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.14 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71bc…7fe4backed New York Yankees | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Boston Red Sox | 59c | 228$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.48 | 1,722 | 50.3%867 W · 855 L | +55.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…5672backed New York Yankees | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed New York Yankees | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Yankees | 39c | 177.79$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.54 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Boston Red Sox | 60c | 146.76$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Boston Red Sox | 61c | 129$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.31 | 507 | 48.7%247 W · 260 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked New York Yankees | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed New York Yankees | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…bce9backed New York Yankees | 47c | 125.53$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Boston Red Sox | 59c | 120$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed New York Yankees | 19c | 114.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed New York Yankees | 39c | 112$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed New York Yankees | 39c | 112$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a0c…14cebacked Boston Red Sox | 62c | 94.16$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.78 | 145 | 55.9%81 W · 64 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Boston Red Sox | 61c | 68.77$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.82 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Boston Red Sox | 64c | 66.67$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Boston Red Sox | 60c | 63.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked New York Yankees | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed New York Yankees | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5965…d26dbacked Boston Red Sox | 61c | 46.26$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed New York Yankees | 38c | 40.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa56…c87bbacked New York Yankees | 39c | 35.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed New York Yankees | 40c | 34.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6136…96cbbacked Boston Red Sox | 62c | 33.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed New York Yankees | 39c | 25.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…463dbacked New York Yankees | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 59cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Boston Red Sox | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York YankeesBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. New York YankeesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.