Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7be456917ad9e82d840766bf4cc9a59e0db40fd23fc290839417fd10735c3dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,926
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,031
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,926 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 50c | 333.36$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.83 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 46c | 291.03$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.6 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 71c | 279.82$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.71 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 64c | 260.01$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.03 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 50c | 229.07$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.42 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b29…f288backed Yes | 52c | 208.92$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 202.88$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.04 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 26c | 163.72$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.67 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 51c | 160.14$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.37 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 42c | 156.86$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.52 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 46c | 129.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 49c | 123$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 43c | 107.6$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 56c | 104.41$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.58 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 97.93$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.28 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 49c | 96.8$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.27 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 56c | 85$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 57c | 72.09$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.18 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 53c | 70.9$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.38 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 53c | 67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.67 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 58c | 57.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 44c | 56.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 56c | 56.03$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 38c | 52.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 49c | 50.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 72c | 43.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 42c | 42.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed No | 48c | 41.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 54c | 38.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 44c | 38.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 54c | 31.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 40c | 29.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…3a34backed Yes | 42c | 28.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 57c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe55…516ebacked Yes | 51c | 24.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2faa…26c2backed Yes | 46c | 24.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 54c | 23.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a22…1ccfbacked Yes | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 75c | 20.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on August 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on August 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on August 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.