Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7de46dadc3b9788d9472e524393a3dd51653410e552698b9efbe990896536b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,409
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,861
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,409 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 1c | 2,060$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 9c | 805.98$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.39 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 16c | 675.63$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.28 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1535…d77bbacked Yes | 34c | 500.07$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.03 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ca…1ec7backed Yes | 2c | 461.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 35c | 190.42$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.71 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 11c | 177.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x87a9…4bdfbacked Yes | 26c | 174.6$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.66 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 164.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 73c | 138.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.09 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 72c | 137.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 36c | 136$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 36c | 130.1$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes | 11c | 125$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 74c | 120.97$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.87 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 72c | 114.81$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.84 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 34c | 101$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca5…4342backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 35c | 99.96$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf709…7697backed Yes | 30c | 99.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 32c | 93.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 27c | 90.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 27c | 90.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe168…f375backed Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…0f16backed No | 65c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed Yes | 35c | 71.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 64c | 70$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 65c | 68$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 64c | 59.52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 54.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa17e…cfcdbacked Yes | 36c | 51.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d48…ba3cbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 74c | 49.97$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 70c | 43.94$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 70c | 40.31$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7164…24fabacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4de…f9c4backed No | 67c | 33.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 74c | 29.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 71c | 28.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 72c | 26.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2930…3666backed No | 66c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 65c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 73c | 19.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 65c | 17.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 72c | 15.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.