Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9bf6ad6f9bc7a5fc74b0f7b60ca37a993a89d8fe889e0757d4e8a90e16262add
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,622
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,927
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,622 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0af2…ce86backed Yes | 41c | 1,589$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.28 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +6.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 40c | 575.41$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.52 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9757…2dbfbacked No | 5c | 528.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 17c | 472.55$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.41 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 36c | 454.95$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.03 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…d680backed No | 11c | 449.07$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.61 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 5c | 428.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 44c | 418.99$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.98 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…b9a9backed Yes | 48c | 365.74$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.44 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 22c | 319.11$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.68 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 24c | 299.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.2 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 15c | 278.12$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.06 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 31c | 271.1$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.69 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 20c | 269.87$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.72 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc538…c555backed No | 77c | 259.2$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 76c | 247.75$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.13 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87a9…4bdfbacked No | 32c | 239.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.1 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 70c | 234.91$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.1 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 7c | 225.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed No | 76c | 219.14$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.66 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 17c | 214.69$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.24 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 33c | 213.02$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.6 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 34c | 210.91$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.37 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 209.53$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.33 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 11c | 189.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 11c | 180.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.42 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 172.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.46 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 15c | 150$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 72c | 148.47$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.49 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 45c | 147$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.32 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 26c | 140.81$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.2 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 23c | 139.01$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 78c | 138.5$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.67 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 9c | 136.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 68c | 118.24$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.85 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 116.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.71 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 42c | 110.1$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.94 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 11c | 110$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 36c | 109.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.12 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 58c | 109.64$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.87 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3127…6f1bbacked Yes | 35c | 109.4$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.13 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 10c | 104.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.55 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…d0babacked No | 10c | 103$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 56c | 100.21$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.25 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.65 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c2…c9bbbacked No | 13c | 99.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 64cpaid | +19%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc123…ed5bbacked Yes | 56c | 97.05$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.11 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 36c | 94.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 70c | 91.93$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.76 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…b7d3backed No | 17c | 86.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 34c | 86.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.38 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 19c | 82.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.03 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 44c | 80$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 56c | 79.91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.09 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 54c | 73.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f7…45d5backed No | 17c | 68.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 33c | 65.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…86fdbacked No | 61c | 57.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…2d4bbacked No | 48c | 55.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked No | 42c | 54.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.22 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6b…280bbacked No | 69c | 40.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…04a6backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 54c | 37.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 27c | 36.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.94 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 42c | 35.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 54c | 35.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 62c | 31.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7164…24fabacked No | 71c | 31.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc47e…0fc4backed Yes | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 39c | 29.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 34c | 29.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 43c | 29.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9953…9ef2backed Yes | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 77c | 28.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ada…8eeabacked Yes | 45c | 26.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 40 | 75%30 W · 10 L | +6.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 24.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 68c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 58c | 23.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f3…d2acbacked No | 44c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2930…3666backed No | 75c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked No | 78c | 21.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf20e…8220backed No | 60c | 20.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 51c | 20.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 70c | 17.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.