Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe53982bae8078d63b97462ecbd807551e7229e8fe1a17ba196b65cd19dbdb4ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,876
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,454
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,876 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 8c | 1,824$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.75 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16ca…1ec7backed Yes | 11c | 1,458$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.68 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0af2…ce86backed Yes | 20c | 1,175$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.72 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +6.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 7c | 1,113$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.2 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 5c | 694.76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.89 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb722…1098backed Yes | 34c | 514.45$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 33cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1535…d77bbacked Yes | 36c | 500.76$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.15 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 31c | 393$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.87 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 29c | 387.81$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.6 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 70c | 317.18$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.75 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 16c | 303.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.71 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…b9a9backed Yes | 23c | 288.17$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.46 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 24c | 287.75$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.11 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 74c | 271.09$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.33 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 10c | 269.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 8c | 248.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 245.41$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.64 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 11c | 244.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 18c | 237.09$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.07 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 11c | 233.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 12c | 217.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 38c | 199.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 6c | 183.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1c01…aa0fbacked No | 77c | 171.28$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +116.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 72c | 167.47$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.99 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 20c | 160.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 64c | 155.19$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.87 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 35c | 151.16$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.9 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeead…178dbacked Yes | 67c | 148.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.27per pick | 72cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 147$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.93 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 21c | 142.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 65c | 138.5$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.44 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 65c | 137.1$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.93 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 65c | 136.27$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.69 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87a9…4bdfbacked Yes | 40c | 135$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 130.89$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…3df2backed Yes | 33c | 127.2$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd879…7bc3backed Yes | 8c | 121.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +7.0wins | +0.16per pick | 36cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 121.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe03c…c61bbacked Yes | 23c | 119.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 17c | 119.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 100.37$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.18 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc47e…0fc4backed Yes | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 37c | 90.68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 87.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 39c | 87.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 14c | 86.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 18c | 82.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe168…f375backed Yes | 33c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 26c | 79.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No | 67c | 79.13$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 15c | 78.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 66c | 76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 72$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.64 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 64c | 71.25$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 39c | 68.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 73c | 68.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 68.29$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 60c | 62.56$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 33c | 59.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 59.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x124a…b245backed Yes | 64c | 57.43$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6b…280bbacked No | 62c | 56.78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa17e…cfcdbacked Yes | 41c | 53.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c2…0c32backed No | 62c | 51.85$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 50c | 51.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 64c | 50.69$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 63c | 50.16$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…b97abacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 175 | 36.6%64 W · 111 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…cf27backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc58c…0a81backed No | 65c | 49.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 75c | 44.33$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 29c | 42.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…cd3cbacked No | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -13.1wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 72c | 39.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked No | 73c | 39.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 52c | 38.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 67c | 38.46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 29c | 37.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8dc…2222backed No | 78c | 35.93$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea5…3ed4backed Yes | 42c | 35.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5e…843dbacked Yes | 28c | 35.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 60c | 33.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 35c | 33.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe22b…4d39backed No | 79c | 33.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 68c | 31.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 35c | 31.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f83…9847backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eaa…3561backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 38c | 29.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…2d4bbacked No | 61c | 27.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 50c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 75c | 26.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x109e…9a31backed No | 68c | 26.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 63c | 25.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.