MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7ebce3c8defbea2fc90ca1a9181478adab1711c8cf8be04a7d9731d73860b9a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,984
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,965
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,984 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 44c | 6,849$3,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,012.57 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 56c | 2,417$1,357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,059.81 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 56c | 1,820$1,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.8 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 56c | 933$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.52 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 56c | 636.36$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.62 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 39c | 512.82$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Over | 56c | 296.62$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.51 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x003d…56b3backed Over | 56c | 291.07$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 61c | 268.65$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.49 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Over | 58c | 233.25$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.97 | 383 | 53.5%205 W · 178 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 31c | 218$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.62 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3516…45e5backed Over | 62c | 206.45$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.45 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Over | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 211 | 49.3%104 W · 107 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 56c | 182.4$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.26 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 43c | 181.18$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.91 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 66c | 180$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.3 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 38c | 160.32$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.23 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 67c | 126.15$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.27 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 56c | 119.95$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.78 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Over | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 229 | 48%110 W · 119 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ca…e628backed Over | 56c | 88$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.72 | 105 | 46.7%49 W · 56 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebc…01c6backed Under | 43c | 83.72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 92 | 43.5%40 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab4…5a40backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…d14bbacked Under | 43c | 26.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 221 | 51.6%114 W · 107 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Over | 67c | 19.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 56c | 19.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed Over | 65c | 18.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 162 | 74.1%120 W · 42 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5this page
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona DiamondbacksLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 12.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 13.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-5.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona DiamondbacksYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.