MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22ef93f16b6c8d289e2937cbb189b8fab7c70a354c3e5423938c28d336adb296
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,688
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,616
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,688 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 53c | 2,939$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,379.45 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 38c | 1,082$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.34 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 58c | 1,034$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.87 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 22c | 831.3$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.47 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc126…60aebacked Under | 65c | 697.45$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.12 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 31c | 629.09$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.24 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8443…2988backed Over | 58c | 619.29$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.19 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…4f96backed Over | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 534 | 48.9%261 W · 273 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 40c | 523.1$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.24 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 76c | 438.3$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.14 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…c3eabacked Over | 47c | 406.23$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 265 | 45.7%121 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7757…b165backed Over | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3df…9945backed Under | 56c | 356.35$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.35 | 64 | 67.2%43 W · 21 L | +6.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1788…aa80backed Under | 80c | 350$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd10…f782backed Under | 60c | 298.33$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.33 | 134 | 47.8%64 W · 70 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 51c | 292.39$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.48 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 32c | 237.37$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.56 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…184cbacked Under | 78c | 229$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.39 | 284 | 53.9%153 W · 131 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…f272backed Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Over | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 75c | 169.19$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.37 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 62c | 166.33$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.44 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Over | 20c | 147.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 211 | 49.3%104 W · 107 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Over | 63c | 115.79$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.95 | 231 | 40.3%93 W · 138 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 77c | 85.94$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 51c | 82.16$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.35 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 36c | 72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d30…5f85backed Under | 65c | 59.4$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 111 | 49.5%55 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…e6cebacked Under | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…d0a8backed Over | 70c | 39.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…2c72backed Over | 43c | 38.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 41c | 36.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Over | 34c | 33.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Over | 52c | 27.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 76c | 24.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Over | 54c | 21.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 260 | 63.8%166 W · 94 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 77c | 18.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5this page
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona DiamondbacksLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 12.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 13.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-5.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona DiamondbacksYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.