MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e27df62b1acb7b6eece65310ccc99c352e73fa9ee1c2736df657ae09512b47a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,396
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,249
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,396 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 55c | 8,370$4,562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,562.21 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Over | 45c | 7,941$3,574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,367.64 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb85…152fbacked Under | 57c | 5,271$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65c9…cf56backed Under | 52c | 3,766$1,957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,956.98 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 48c | 3,662$1,758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,903.99 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Over | 48c | 3,132$1,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,629.91 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354b…4744backed Over | 50c | 3,025$1,523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,501.76 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 43c | 2,494$1,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,421.34 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 37c | 1,265$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.43 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 68c | 1,195$812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.2 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 57c | 1,047$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 45c | 992.28$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.56 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1f…9136backed Under | 55c | 829.09$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 64c | 741$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.76 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked Under | 55c | 670.53$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.79 | 252 | 49.2%124 W · 128 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 45c | 626.2$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.22 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 41c | 517.63$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.4 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…dbbbbacked Under | 56c | 499.99$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.99 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 48c | 414.06$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.2 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 43c | 303.69$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.65 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x369e…d016backed Under | 42c | 230$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.6 | 115 | 60.9%70 W · 45 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 36c | 216.09$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.79 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…d14bbacked Under | 47c | 194.72$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.66 | 221 | 51.6%114 W · 107 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 52c | 175.48$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.03 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 53c | 167.54$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.41 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 59c | 137.61$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.19 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ae…55f8backed Over | 52c | 115.08$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.08 | 97 | 51.5%50 W · 47 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 45c | 108.89$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.89 | 219 | 44.7%98 W · 121 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 49c | 90$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.69 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 44c | 85.91$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.11 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 65c | 83.61$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 46c | 83.51$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 59c | 82.95$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.94 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 45c | 78.18$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Over | 53c | 76.04$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1952…dbf9backed Under | 57c | 68.42$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…da0cbacked Under | 56c | 56.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Under | 34c | 47.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 57c | 45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 41c | 42.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.73 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Under | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 43c | 39.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 57c | 39.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3255…ffb9backed Over | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 180 | 53.9%97 W · 83 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05bc…f3ebbacked Under | 36c | 33.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Over | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 211 | 49.3%104 W · 107 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 46c | 26.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 54c | 26.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd0…c747backed Under | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Over | 41c | 25.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 162 | 61.1%99 W · 63 L | +14.6wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e9…b2e0backed Under | 53c | 23.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5this page
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona DiamondbacksLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 12.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 13.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-5.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona DiamondbacksYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.