MLB · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf297e50c95c3b55305ff8d1189e26877ce62c1134986a058e8de9bbf7668c3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Diamondbacksof Los Angeles Dodgers, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,838
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,241
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,838 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe1a2…14b8backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 65c | 10,800$7,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,063.63 | 182 | 41.2%75 W · 107 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 49c | 8,249$4,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,198.06 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8582…40cebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 0c | 5,121$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 40c | 4,039$1,615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,615.4 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c48…f6f6backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 1c | 2,300$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…212ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 1,721$1,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.26 | 206 | 48.1%99 W · 107 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 34c | 1,555$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,029.02 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 1,307$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.96 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…184cbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 56c | 1,065$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.2 | 284 | 53.9%153 W · 131 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 36c | 976.67$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.15 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cac…1744backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 892.98$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.19 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 24c | 771.8$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.72 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 41c | 731.7$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.7 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 40c | 679.8$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.38 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd794…248bbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 60c | 593.1$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.86 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd33a…1fe2backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 60c | 500.38$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 46c | 416.19$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.54 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x886f…aa8fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 52c | 400$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2542…7821backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 76c | 394.74$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 38c | 280.91$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.51 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…4f96backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 37c | 270.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.54 | 534 | 48.9%261 W · 273 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 30c | 199$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.3 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb758…4699backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 74c | 181.74$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.25 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 34c | 172$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.48 | 173 | 54.9%95 W · 78 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca3…9613backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 63c | 155.62$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 231 | 66.7%154 W · 77 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 29c | 150$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe80f…b81bbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 42c | 142.86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 34c | 130$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.8 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 46c | 106.52$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.52 | 141 | 58.9%83 W · 58 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…e639backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 19c | 101.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9299…6eb9backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 71c | 101.41$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee11…19a9backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 59c | 101.2$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83cc…9519backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 32c | 96.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…bce9backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 61c | 96.72$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 42c | 88.88$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.5 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 49c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 1,728 | 50.4%871 W · 857 L | +57.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 60c | 69.58$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.59 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 68.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 241 | 50.6%122 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 67.16$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 396 | 53.5%212 W · 184 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 64.42$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 46c | 51.12$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 21c | 51.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3b…d591backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 51c | 49.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a45…92c4backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 42c | 47.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 51c | 44.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0a…ed66backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 41c | 36.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e2…c81fbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 66c | 33.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7afb…ff15backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 48c | 21.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…3a3fbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 53c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 116 | 37.9%44 W · 72 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 19.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 19.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)this page
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona DiamondbacksLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 12.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 13.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-5.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona DiamondbacksYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.