Commodities · resolved market
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7edfa96f75940877782916024893b28bebe1edf6d1396518de3fb0d5318ca0e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,831
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,871
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,831 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Up | 62c | 1,675$1,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.44 | 942 | 40.2%379 W · 563 L | -69.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Down | 46c | 1,487$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.61 | 1,286 | 24.2%311 W · 975 L | -58.4wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Up | 63c | 1,301$816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.46 | 91 | 49.5%45 W · 46 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdac5…ae24backed Down | 74c | 1,000$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740 | 198 | 55.6%110 W · 88 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0472…fe48backed Up | 49c | 812.23$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.24 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Down | 31c | 803.21$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.47 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e71…be4cbacked Down | 51c | 802.43$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.24 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +31%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b0…a3f2backed Up | 31c | 688.24$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.24 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…3296backed Down | 42c | 507$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.04 | 256 | 61.3%157 W · 99 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3e58…4344backed Up | 77c | 460$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.8 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb59…83f9backed Down | 30c | 397.08$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.41 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Up | 73c | 302.13$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.35 | 369 | 50.7%187 W · 182 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe77…b4c4backed Down | 74c | 200$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd15a…80dbbacked Up | 77c | 179.99$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.65 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed Up | 62c | 147.98$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.23 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xef25…24c8backed Up | 63c | 109.67$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.07 | 24 | 83.3%20 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc4…6770backed Down | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f62…a670backed Down | 21c | 93.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c1b…63ddbacked Up | 55c | 91.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…db19backed Down | 50c | 79.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c1…0e7cbacked Down | 50c | 70.69$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed Down | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -6.6wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…43ddbacked Down | 49c | 51.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -41%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35a4…7b85backed Down | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd9…a74fbacked Down | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa423…fd1dbacked Up | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebf6…857ebacked Down | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x395d…7313backed Down | 27c | 49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07a9…2ab0backed Up | 52c | 47.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb189…a7fbbacked Down | 36c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Down | 25c | 43.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,032 | 9.3%96 W · 936 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1c…27d3backed Up | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eda…fb8ebacked Up | 77c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.