La Liga · resolved market
FC Barcelona vs. Athletic Club: Draw at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7f3c409be1dd5c1762c0c987cdcf41216a56445824f718fe47b40de281c2e14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,246
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,135
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,246 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf12d…0fddbacked Yes | 36c | 833.33$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 64c | 833.33$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 924 | 43%397 W · 527 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3a…e974backed Yes | 32c | 727.14$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.94 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 45c | 632.69$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.67 | 1,187 | 32.4%385 W · 802 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 68c | 589.25$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.56 | 891 | 39.8%355 W · 536 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed No | 70c | 577.87$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.36 | 106 | 61.3%65 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76a3…1fa5backed Yes | 30c | 572.87$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 52c | 208.5$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.53 | 3,571 | 42.6%1,522 W · 2,049 L | +26.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked No | 72c | 200$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.47 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 5c | 192.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 510 | 48.6%248 W · 262 L | +14.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…014abacked Yes | 28c | 179$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a0…5fdbbacked No | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed No | 68c | 15.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -8.7wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Barcelona vs. Athletic Club: Draw at halftime?this page
- Athletic Club leading at halftime?No won
- FC Barcelona leading at halftime?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.