Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf81c6fbfb556b01d1a1509cff44d224245db9fb3fcba17a6dddb7d2f5a10d33d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,009
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,911
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,009 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1b11…ce49backed Yes | 0c | 21,639$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.59 | 81 | 13.6%11 W · 70 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac1e…4cf3backed Yes | 0c | 12,502$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 3c | 780$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed Yes | 2c | 733.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedd1…45a9backed Yes | 2c | 600$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 73 | 5.5%4 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +161.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3d…1e5abacked Yes | 2c | 600$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 52 | 3.8%2 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x238d…eb74backed Yes | 2c | 599.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 11c | 340$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 9c | 288.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 29c | 241.94$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.29 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Yes | 7c | 230$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…9724backed Yes | 44c | 227.53$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.05 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 28c | 97.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38cc…f88ebacked No | 57c | 95.68$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.38 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +237.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 90.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3267…2573backed Yes | 32c | 62.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 60.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 37c | 52.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e64…ee2cbacked No | 56c | 51.21$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 69c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 54c | 49.22$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…36a1backed Yes | 30c | 48.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…137ebacked No | 68c | 48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 136 | 63.2%86 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 29c | 46.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…cdc1backed No | 46c | 43.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…a2cebacked Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 94 | 33%31 W · 63 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a23…fd22backed Yes | 32c | 39.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 71c | 35.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 70c | 32.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed No | 72c | 19.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…fc4abacked No | 71c | 16.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | -11.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 70c | 15.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 22°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 23°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C or higher on April 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.