Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d9501539af6af14cb54f7e7e16841b7a32badd6a655e5c558700dbf7d10db72
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,156
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,128
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,156 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x765f…1508backed No | 5c | 494.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 39c | 402.1$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.86 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 21c | 346.22$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.62 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…c236backed Yes | 77c | 333.74$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.88 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 328.42$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.28 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 19c | 200.06$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.42 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 11c | 189.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 6c | 183.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d46…b09bbacked No | 59c | 164.34$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.2 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 40c | 110$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed7…bb28backed Yes | 23c | 79.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.21 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 61c | 78.24$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.44 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d14…02f0backed Yes | 69c | 71.39$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.91 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 31c | 69.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…7765backed No | 39c | 66.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8506…5a06backed Yes | 71c | 59.25$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe684…5b3bbacked Yes | 63c | 51.57$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 48c | 51.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 66c | 50.52$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f4…63d9backed No | 20c | 49.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked No | 60c | 30.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3dbc…ac39backed Yes | 75c | 30.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 40c | 28.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 54c | 27.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2f…bad2backed No | 40c | 25.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 80c | 23.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 73c | 20.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d6…1c0abacked No | 64c | 19.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc342…c744backed No | 64c | 19.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 22°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 23°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C or higher on April 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.