Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on April 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf830d86ac29a517b5ac25dd99d30ec159d37b93fdc90e7dce5f04d388e951e82
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,474
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,156
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,474 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 3c | 551.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 2c | 498.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 67c | 273.11$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.39 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 8c | 204.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 66c | 180.51$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.12 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…76afbacked No | 27c | 179.56$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.34 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -10.2wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 32c | 170.87$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.94 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 12c | 161.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa74f…25c0backed No | 63c | 153.93$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.25 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 21c | 139.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd65a…8723backed Yes | 50c | 137.64$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.35 | 45 | 86.7%39 W · 6 L | +16.1wins | +0.36per pick | 51cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 76+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 74c | 135$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -8.6wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 70c | 129.54$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.25 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x803e…719cbacked No | 11c | 128.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 28c | 123.39$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.36 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d5…d088backed Yes | 79c | 114.36$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +143.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 24c | 107.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 11c | 100.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 89.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 27c | 81.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 25c | 78.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 22c | 74.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.3 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 63.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.72 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x105c…1011backed No | 32c | 59.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 42c | 59.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e1…0805backed No | 20c | 55.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf88b…0ed2backed Yes | 73c | 54.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 73c | 53.28$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…222bbacked No | 46c | 51.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 70c | 48.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x131d…2a50backed No | 36c | 45.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -15.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 69c | 41.96$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 26c | 41.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9536…68f9backed Yes | 56c | 38.24$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 37c | 34.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6889…f2e3backed Yes | 65c | 28.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x395b…b370backed Yes | 73c | 28.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ada…4908backed Yes | 70c | 27.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96ba…b875backed Yes | 77c | 26.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3792…34d1backed Yes | 73c | 25.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 69c | 24.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed Yes | 71c | 21.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b2…a221backed Yes | 76c | 21.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 74c | 21.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 75c | 20.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5d…54e1backed Yes | 72c | 20.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed Yes | 69c | 19.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf7…3c63backed Yes | 68c | 14.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 80c | 12.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on April 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 18°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 19°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C or higher on April 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.