Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Oregon State Beavers vs. San Francisco Dons
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf84e9afa2de5123058fa29993ac357035590741cebef51372377111c5fc04492
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Oregon State Beaversof Oregon State Beavers, San Francisco Dons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,464
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,324
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,464 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked San Francisco Dons | 21c | 2,000$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.6 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked San Francisco Dons | 3c | 1,623$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.63 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked San Francisco Dons | 11c | 1,553$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.41 | 493 | 45.4%224 W · 269 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed San Francisco Dons | 55c | 1,513$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.82 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Oregon State Beavers | 70c | 1,468$1,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.76 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Oregon State Beavers | 68c | 1,257$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.68 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed San Francisco Dons | 3c | 1,174$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.39 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked San Francisco Dons | 45c | 893.93$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.16 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed San Francisco Dons | 4c | 890$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 1,420 | 43.9%623 W · 797 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked San Francisco Dons | 79c | 875.65$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.11 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed San Francisco Dons | 42c | 731.95$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.19 | 682 | 54.3%370 W · 312 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Oregon State Beavers | 64c | 514$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.33 | 614 | 46.1%283 W · 331 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked San Francisco Dons | 79c | 500$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe622…ea5ebacked Oregon State Beavers | 21c | 500$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395 | 371 | 42.6%158 W · 213 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Oregon State Beavers | 21c | 475.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.03 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed San Francisco Dons | 26c | 461.48$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.86 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f6d…9db5backed Oregon State Beavers | 55c | 401.09$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.51 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked San Francisco Dons | 16c | 335$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 1,540 | 41.3%636 W · 904 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed San Francisco Dons | 11c | 319$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.52 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Oregon State Beavers | 28c | 304.59$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.23 | 1,983 | 26.4%523 W · 1,460 L | -55.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f9…8d2dbacked Oregon State Beavers | 21c | 272.38$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.18 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked San Francisco Dons | 15c | 231.39$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.71 | 191 | 38.2%73 W · 118 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c77…a901backed San Francisco Dons | 50c | 212$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.28 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b1…3c7cbacked Oregon State Beavers | 22c | 209.09$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.09 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Oregon State Beavers | 20c | 199.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.99 | 2,194 | 33.4%733 W · 1,461 L | +19.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed San Francisco Dons | 37c | 164.72$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.71 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed San Francisco Dons | 45c | 154.74$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.66 | 998 | 48.4%483 W · 515 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed San Francisco Dons | 44c | 110$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.01 | 1,493 | 48.7%727 W · 766 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed San Francisco Dons | 22c | 107.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 1,249 | 16.4%205 W · 1,044 L | -189.4wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed San Francisco Dons | 76c | 80.48$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.35 | 934 | 47.9%447 W · 487 L | -19.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed San Francisco Dons | 50c | 79.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…afbcbacked San Francisco Dons | 26c | 64.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 703 | 49.6%349 W · 354 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a9…e22ebacked San Francisco Dons | 77c | 60$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 374 | 41.7%156 W · 218 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ff…0b32backed Oregon State Beavers | 32c | 59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.12 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed San Francisco Dons | 76c | 55.08$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.86 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x313c…61d9backed Oregon State Beavers | 67c | 51.61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac3f…1966backed San Francisco Dons | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 251 | 52.6%132 W · 119 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96f1…b6d8backed Oregon State Beavers | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58e0…be18backed San Francisco Dons | 77c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 86 | 64%55 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb6…ff78backed Oregon State Beavers | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Oregon State Beavers | 68c | 34.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 716 | 55.3%396 W · 320 L | +26.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0c…9db8backed San Francisco Dons | 39c | 30.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 127 | 48.8%62 W · 65 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd286…4c1bbacked San Francisco Dons | 80c | 21.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +13.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x968b…e4c5backed Oregon State Beavers | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Oregon State Beavers vs. San Francisco Donsthis page
- Oregon State Beavers vs. San Francisco Dons: O/U 140.5Over won
- Oregon State Beavers vs. San Francisco Dons: O/U 141.5Over won
- Spread: San Francisco Dons (-8.5)Oregon State Beavers won
- Spread: San Francisco Dons (-9.5)Oregon State Beavers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.