Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: FC Porto (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf850ea632382d38a926fbe515890ef12b7d2481ccb300837d470f0bccde54d21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nottingham Forest FCof FC Porto, Nottingham Forest FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,870
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,660
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,870 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1ee…9fe7backed FC Porto | 7c | 723$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16eb…7783backed FC Porto | 7c | 713$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b60…09fbbacked FC Porto | 7c | 691$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eaf…5422backed FC Porto | 7c | 677$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb070…3bbcbacked FC Porto | 7c | 666.63$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94ab…cf48backed FC Porto | 7c | 661$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07a9…6114backed FC Porto | 7c | 661$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd94…ed7fbacked FC Porto | 7c | 659$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a62…e958backed FC Porto | 7c | 653$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…1bcfbacked FC Porto | 7c | 652$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea4…e13cbacked FC Porto | 7c | 649$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2b…ccc7backed FC Porto | 6c | 647$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca68…bd56backed FC Porto | 6c | 646$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85aa…2f00backed FC Porto | 7c | 645$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1f…0a1cbacked FC Porto | 7c | 642$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked FC Porto | 9c | 582.37$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.41 | 785 | 44.8%352 W · 433 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed FC Porto | 9c | 525.22$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.27 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed FC Porto | 7c | 450.51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed FC Porto | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed FC Porto | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 212 | 43.9%93 W · 119 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed FC Porto | 6c | 243.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 2,175 | 37.6%817 W · 1,358 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed FC Porto | 9c | 189.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Nottingham Forest FC | 47c | 21.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: FC Porto (-2.5)this page
- FC Porto vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Porto vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Porto vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Porto vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Porto vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Porto (-1.5)Nottingham Forest FC won
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-1.5)FC Porto won
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-2.5)FC Porto won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.