TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Europa Conference League · resolved market

Spread: FC Porto (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nottingham Forest FCof FC Porto, Nottingham Forest FC
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$133,783
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$121,395

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $133,783 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xac47…d234backed FC Porto22c39,276$8,586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,586.25955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick36cpaid+39.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Nottingham Forest FC80c28,959$23,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,880.873,72647%1,750 W · 1,976 L+20.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Nottingham Forest FC71c12,419$8,804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,614.512,99042.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L+9.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x116c…e162backed FC Porto21c8,290$1,707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,707.214141.5%17 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+6.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked FC Porto21c7,272$1,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,519.721338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Nottingham Forest FC79c6,674$5,257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,417.713953.8%21 W · 18 L-3.9wins-0.10per pick64cpaid-17.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed FC Porto17c5,308$911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$910.5984850.8%431 W · 417 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Nottingham Forest FC80c4,880$3,883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$996.9891950.9%468 W · 451 L+15.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd10c…0645backed FC Porto11c4,316$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.29825%2 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-53.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb917…02c6backed FC Porto46c3,969$1,811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,811.162240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Nottingham Forest FC79c3,507$2,757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$749.9114552.4%76 W · 69 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Nottingham Forest FC79c3,487$2,758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$728.5911443.9%50 W · 64 L-8.4wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-18.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked FC Porto21c3,218$676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$675.78250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Nottingham Forest FC78c3,175$2,467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$708.3714654.1%79 W · 67 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc93c…3c93backed FC Porto19c2,700$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.9830%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdf37…8b49backed Nottingham Forest FC78c2,346$1,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.134420.5%9 W · 35 L-11.8wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-63.5%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xec59…bb35backed FC Porto23c2,072$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.815653.6%30 W · 26 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+24.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb53a…e694backed FC Porto7c2,057$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1421723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5bd…b891backed Nottingham Forest FC78c1,948$1,523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.14461.4%27 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46fb…2b75backed FC Porto20c1,900$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9a2…a79abacked FC Porto20c1,400$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2803630.6%11 W · 25 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ccc…dbcdbacked FC Porto2c1,269$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.257636.8%28 W · 48 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed FC Porto11c1,244$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.67237.5%27 W · 45 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-20.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa85b…eb0ebacked Nottingham Forest FC77c1,206$928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.315740.4%23 W · 34 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b44…be1ebacked FC Porto19c1,195$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.99728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-42.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b5a…87efbacked FC Porto20c1,187$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.191428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-47.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1677…1126backed FC Porto17c1,114$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.3815846.8%74 W · 84 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd71a…5e5dbacked FC Porto19c1,020$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.79333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-46.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4329…3ff8backed FC Porto18c1,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6eb…8761backed FC Porto18c1,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9e7…666abacked FC Porto19c999.96$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe271…1570backed FC Porto23c866.52$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.31050%5 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+25.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6b0…fdbcbacked FC Porto17c865.81$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.911136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked FC Porto19c848.42$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.216242.6%69 W · 93 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc16…40a5backed FC Porto23c829.39$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.762825%7 W · 21 L-3.9wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-47%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed FC Porto21c717.67$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.711,31650.8%668 W · 648 L+33.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x972f…65bdbacked FC Porto20c714$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.8850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed FC Porto20c706$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03f0…63e0backed FC Porto20c706$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.22445.8%11 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+65.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x89a8…b07ebacked FC Porto21c706$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed FC Porto18c631.85$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.3713040%52 W · 78 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Nottingham Forest FC79c571.09$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.15263.5%33 W · 19 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed FC Porto17c569.94$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.891040%4 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed FC Porto12c569.2$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.442,16737.6%815 W · 1,352 L+5.7wins0.00per pick37cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed FC Porto18c496.15$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.1433522.4%75 W · 260 L-43.5wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-52.8%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xf8d9…d7f5backed FC Porto24c430$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.22326.1%6 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-43.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94a5…4eb8backed Nottingham Forest FC79c403.42$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.721450%7 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0200…21f2backed FC Porto23c386.45$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.1540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Nottingham Forest FC78c300$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$665856.9%33 W · 25 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed FC Porto19c299.99$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574235.7%15 W · 27 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Nottingham Forest FC80c278.26$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.9770239.3%276 W · 426 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xce27…8a7dbacked FC Porto18c264.11$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.541010%1 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick21cpaid-73.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Nottingham Forest FC79c250.13$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.659056.7%51 W · 39 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Nottingham Forest FC77c248.81$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.2776941.9%322 W · 447 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-24.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4be6…b010backed FC Porto24c210.76$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.584045%18 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed FC Porto22c206.99$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.549345.2%42 W · 51 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9691…c6e7backed FC Porto21c200$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+14.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a2b…3377backed FC Porto22c190.64$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9744…cab4backed Nottingham Forest FC79c183.84$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.581866.7%12 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick60cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6835…1976backed FC Porto18c179.96$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3919546.2%90 W · 105 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9269…5eb8backed FC Porto18c158.47$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.521030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-20.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a15…52d6backed Nottingham Forest FC79c155.02$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.552944.8%13 W · 16 L-4.4wins-0.15per pick60cpaid-30.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x54a6…7401backed Nottingham Forest FC77c149.75$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.443542.9%15 W · 20 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-25.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc8f1…31a0backed Nottingham Forest FC80c148.73$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.75580%4 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+27.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf704…bed4backed FC Porto23c143.07$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.91650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+32.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe65…0546backed Nottingham Forest FC78c137.83$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.932347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e9f…5403backed Nottingham Forest FC79c135.54$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.44825%2 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-58.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed FC Porto21c133.15$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.961,02247.5%485 W · 537 L-2.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc84…2468backed FC Porto18c132.06$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb95…a5ccbacked Nottingham Forest FC78c128.94$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.874854.2%26 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7eb3…8e52backed FC Porto23c124.41$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.61837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Nottingham Forest FC80c121.5$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.32744.4%12 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-24.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed FC Porto18c119.24$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4238047.4%180 W · 200 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed FC Porto17c118$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0637926.1%99 W · 280 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x950a…fca5backed Nottingham Forest FC80c116.86$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.46666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+78.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ba3…317ebacked FC Porto15c104.39$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6650%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5471…a236backed FC Porto25c96.02$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.07333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49ec…ac1cbacked Nottingham Forest FC77c94.85$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.361457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Nottingham Forest FC78c94$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211,57355.7%876 W · 697 L+25.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe80b…6fe4backed FC Porto20c89.73$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed FC Porto24c86.81$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0416013.1%21 W · 139 L-18.8wins-0.12per pick25cpaid-47%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x15bb…2033backed Nottingham Forest FC80c81.94$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.752161.9%13 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31d4…5c13backed FC Porto24c79.53$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.091241.7%5 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe489…d321backed FC Porto22c73.66$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cb4…4576backed Nottingham Forest FC79c70.01$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.75850%29 W · 29 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedf1…5776backed Nottingham Forest FC77c64.96$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.65728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.30per pick59cpaid-60.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd1d2…2be9backed FC Porto23c62.2$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.311030%3 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf208…aee3backed FC Porto21c57.14$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.81366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick38cpaid+41.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ddd…73b2backed Nottingham Forest FC79c57.04$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.094973.5%36 W · 13 L+5.9wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+17.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe1bf…45bdbacked Nottingham Forest FC80c49.4$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.88366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick80cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x448d…3adebacked Nottingham Forest FC79c37.62$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.9475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+134.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6926…152dbacked Nottingham Forest FC80c37.05$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.412479.2%19 W · 5 L+4.8wins+0.20per pick59cpaid+36.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Nottingham Forest FC80c34.61$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.9274155.9%414 W · 327 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x97a8…078dbacked Nottingham Forest FC79c34.4$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.15875%6 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+25%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8943…6c65backed Nottingham Forest FC78c27.9$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.121070%7 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick56cpaid+17.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f22…0fb4backed Nottingham Forest FC79c24.86$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.11540%6 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-39.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x03f7…5e90backed FC Porto45c24.18$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27b1…6a0bbacked Nottingham Forest FC79c21.16$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.384358.1%25 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e10…78f7backed Nottingham Forest FC78c21.03$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.61862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8941…83d7backed Nottingham Forest FC80c18.77$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.755448.1%26 W · 28 L-6.8wins-0.13per pick61cpaid-18.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.