Europa Conference League · resolved market

FC Porto vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 3.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18812e1af40eeb7aa40f73c7f6d4d13f0ff7bc1d7a5cf014292bd77bec61d7c4

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Apr 9, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $44,011
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $50,510

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,011 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under	66c	7,204$4,747 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,457.36	3,726	47%1,750 W · 1,976 L	+20.0wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over	37c	5,863$2,195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,195.32	2,990	42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L	+9.4wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Under	61c	5,047$3,079 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,967.92	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.09per pick	62cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd90d…cf07backed Over	33c	4,657$1,520 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,519.69	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe02…dababacked Under	38c	2,502$963 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,538.55	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+31.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over	20c	1,904$381 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$380.8	59	27.1%16 W · 43 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Over	49c	1,287$625 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$624.52	848	50.8%431 W · 417 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under	55c	1,072$591 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$481.37	1,604	38.9%624 W · 980 L	-17.7wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff79…a52abacked Over	48c	1,000$475 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$475	100	34%34 W · 66 L	-10.4wins	-0.10per pick	44cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Under	67c	613.03$411 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$202.25	145	52.4%76 W · 69 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Under	67c	611.23$410 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$200.77	114	43.9%50 W · 64 L	-8.4wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc367…a0b4backed Over	20c	532.06$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.3	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Under	70c	525.83$370 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$155.86	52	65.4%34 W · 18 L	+2.3wins	+0.04per pick	61cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5bd…b891backed Under	70c	525.83$370 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$155.86	44	61.4%27 W · 17 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	64cpaid	-9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ed9…9949backed Over	57c	500$285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$285	18	61.1%11 W · 7 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	55cpaid	+18.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x87a8…2dedbacked Over	56c	434.64$243 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$243.4	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.15per pick	48cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under	55c	421.47$232 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$189.64	380	47.4%180 W · 200 L	-7.1wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x274b…d408backed Over	39c	412.53$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.89	23	30.4%7 W · 16 L	-3.5wins	-0.15per pick	46cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0828…d57ebacked Over	62c	400$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.14per pick	64cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Over	47c	344.98$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.55	702	39.3%276 W · 426 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf429…969ebacked Over	60c	326.3$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.18	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-4.8wins	-0.37per pick	37cpaid	-100%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0x49ca…5944backed Over	61c	320.2$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.32	48	58.3%28 W · 20 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over	40c	296.55$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.62	29	34.5%10 W · 19 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca38…720fbacked Under	65c	293.7$191 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102.79	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Over	17c	288.09$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.01	335	22.4%75 W · 260 L	-43.5wins	-0.13per pick	35cpaid	-52.8%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under	66c	242.82$160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$82.97	769	41.9%322 W · 447 L	-8.2wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0cf…8bcbbacked Over	20c	238$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.6	81	24.7%20 W · 61 L	-8.0wins	-0.10per pick	35cpaid	-52.2%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0xe550…4ebbbacked Over	23c	207.35$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.69	62	35.5%22 W · 40 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Under	70c	206.87$145 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.34	146	54.1%79 W · 67 L	-4.9wins	-0.03per pick	57cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa710…f1ccbacked Over	19c	200.29$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.06	152	24.3%37 W · 115 L	-6.9wins	-0.05per pick	29cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under	72c	200$144 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56	126	33.3%42 W · 84 L	-21.7wins	-0.17per pick	51cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	34-0.14 edge/pick
0x6835…1976backed Over	19c	179.95$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.19	195	46.2%90 W · 105 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Under	49c	166.5$82 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84.97	783	44.8%351 W · 432 L	+13.5wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cf9…dde4backed Over	62c	159.14$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.67	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.62per pick	62cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Under	54c	155.33$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.45	90	56.7%51 W · 39 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	60cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x02b6…8f5fbacked Over	63c	155.21$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.78	19	52.6%10 W · 9 L	-1.9wins	-0.10per pick	63cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a15…52d6backed Under	74c	153.57$114 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.93	29	44.8%13 W · 16 L	-4.4wins	-0.15per pick	60cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over	42c	148.02$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.58	130	40%52 W · 78 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1346…0448backed Under	39c	144.48$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.61	65	56.9%37 W · 28 L	+7.8wins	+0.12per pick	45cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe6d2…7c0dbacked Over	65c	138.49$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.49	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.65per pick	65cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over	17c	136.01$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.03	2,167	37.6%815 W · 1,352 L	+5.7wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb120…4786backed Under	75c	122.46$92 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.77	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.14per pick	64cpaid	-34.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6569…7600backed Under	71c	120.36$85 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.9	32	59.4%19 W · 13 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	61cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Under	70c	115.31$81 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.16	741	55.9%414 W · 327 L	+19.3wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Over	18c	110.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.98	379	26.1%99 W · 280 L	-8.1wins	-0.02per pick	28cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9637…a576backed Over	24c	99.42$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.86	50	40%20 W · 30 L	+5.0wins	+0.10per pick	30cpaid	+15.3%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xafaf…572dbacked Over	39c	98.81$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.54	26	53.8%14 W · 12 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4e8…ff03backed Over	39c	98.76$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.52	38	55.3%21 W · 17 L	-1.8wins	-0.05per pick	60cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e2d…fb60backed Over	60c	97.6$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.56	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-2.8wins	-0.19per pick	52cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x116c…e162backed Over	20c	93.28$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.66	41	41.5%17 W · 24 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd60c…2b06backed Over	41c	92$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.96	179	58.1%104 W · 75 L	+17.0wins	+0.09per pick	49cpaid	+24.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Under	59c	87.43$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.96	52	63.5%33 W · 19 L	+3.8wins	+0.07per pick	56cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe8de…a2b8backed Over	21c	80.2$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.84	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.24per pick	44cpaid	-72.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc87…d938backed Over	37c	78.02$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.87	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-2.5wins	-0.17per pick	50cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7113…dba4backed Over	24c	68.78$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.22	266	47.4%126 W · 140 L	+2.7wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Under	57c	67.57$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.04	87	33.3%29 W · 58 L	-12.0wins	-0.14per pick	47cpaid	-42.3%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xbe65…0546backed Over	46c	66.74$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.45	23	47.8%11 W · 12 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under	53c	65.48$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.84	359	44.8%161 W · 198 L	-7.9wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over	55c	63.51$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.77	638	57.2%365 W · 273 L	+35.3wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4bf2…d280backed Under	61c	55.23$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.54	53	45.3%24 W · 29 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b56…9100backed Over	46c	52.59$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.19	37	29.7%11 W · 26 L	-5.0wins	-0.13per pick	43cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf7f5…8314backed Over	39c	51.5$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.09	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	57cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa93…a0c9backed Over	57c	50.99$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.23	5	60%3 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	65cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e9b…829ebacked Over	40c	48.2$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.28	58	37.9%22 W · 36 L	-2.4wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a81…a86bbacked Over	63c	46.56$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.33	147	67.3%99 W · 48 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	68cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd208…29e6backed Under	54c	45.02$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.71	41	51.2%21 W · 20 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7770…f99bbacked Under	73c	40.31$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.88	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Under	64c	40.08$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.28	78	48.7%38 W · 40 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under	56c	38.94$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.14	880	48.2%424 W · 456 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under	56c	38.94$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.14	1,022	47.5%485 W · 537 L	-2.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Over	39c	35.76$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.95	82	54.9%45 W · 37 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Over	39c	35.76$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.95	109	56%61 W · 48 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	58cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbeb7…ca4abacked Over	50c	34.92$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.46	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-18%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Under	49c	34$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.44	72	37.5%27 W · 45 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3028…21e7backed Under	58c	32.16$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.61	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.05per pick	62cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked Under	76c	30.88$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.39	33	66.7%22 W · 11 L	+4.1wins	+0.12per pick	54cpaid	+17.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8d87…8dbbbacked Over	58c	30.23$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.53	10	50%5 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9744…cab4backed Under	67c	28.8$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.61	18	66.7%12 W · 6 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	60cpaid	0%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x26dd…0249backed Under	80c	28.14$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.67	25	60%15 W · 10 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	61cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x15bb…2033backed Under	54c	28.06$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.9	21	61.9%13 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	61cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5d7e…1532backed Under	73c	27.07$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.31	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.09per pick	58cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a68…22dfbacked Under	66c	24.91$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.55	10	40%4 W · 6 L	+1.4wins	+0.14per pick	26cpaid	+22.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f02…f85fbacked Under	60c	24.4$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.75	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.1wins	+0.28per pick	47cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8943…6c65backed Over	45c	23.36$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.6	10	70%7 W · 3 L	+1.4wins	+0.14per pick	56cpaid	+17.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x04bb…7c05backed Over	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under	80c	18.28$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.68	55	47.3%26 W · 29 L	-4.2wins	-0.08per pick	55cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under	76c	14.07$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.39	76	56.6%43 W · 33 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

FC Porto vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 3.5this page
FC Porto vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
FC Porto vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 1.5Over won
FC Porto vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5Under won
FC Porto vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Spread: FC Porto (-1.5)Nottingham Forest FC won
Spread: FC Porto (-2.5)Nottingham Forest FC won
Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-1.5)FC Porto won
Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-2.5)FC Porto won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

FC Porto vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 3.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event