Tennis · resolved market
Adelaide International, Qualification: Laura Siegemund vs Vera Zvonareva
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf898a4fead0168fd1a10a676c76a92b2582993715ff3e5ea8862b05d67f9c9a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Zvonarevaof Siegemund, Zvonareva
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,865
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,578
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,865 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed Zvonareva | 44c | 5,400$2,376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,024 | 1,193 | 48.9%583 W · 610 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Siegemund | 16c | 1,785$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.64 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c0c…a55dbacked Siegemund | 75c | 1,250$937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$937.48 | 229 | 65.9%151 W · 78 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Siegemund | 56c | 750$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.18 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f2…49b3backed Siegemund | 72c | 700$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeebf…3885backed Siegemund | 16c | 401.4$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc3…675bbacked Zvonareva | 75c | 339.22$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.28 | 137 | 63.5%87 W · 50 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Siegemund | 56c | 315.25$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.54 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5995…53b3backed Siegemund | 80c | 312.5$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4042…0bdabacked Zvonareva | 35c | 285.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.17 | 982 | 40.1%394 W · 588 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Siegemund | 35c | 266.34$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.77 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f78…bfcabacked Siegemund | 6c | 235.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 87 | 13.8%12 W · 75 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a23…97a7backed Zvonareva | 27c | 180.66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.56 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Zvonareva | 39c | 180.03$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.45 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5db9…7572backed Siegemund | 61c | 150$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Siegemund | 19c | 142.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…dd64backed Siegemund | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Zvonareva | 66c | 130.6$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.33 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Zvonareva | 67c | 110.8$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.51 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x584d…d358backed Siegemund | 69c | 101.93$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 341 | 59.5%203 W · 138 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…b81fbacked Siegemund | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -3.8wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Zvonareva | 57c | 75.84$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.72 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Siegemund | 35c | 71.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 276 | 27.2%75 W · 201 L | -25.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…86f6backed Siegemund | 80c | 67.1$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.68 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Siegemund | 48c | 64.74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Zvonareva | 41c | 56.77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x831c…f4eabacked Siegemund | 60c | 49.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Siegemund | 42c | 35.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -11.0wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Zvonareva | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 2,145 | 54.2%1,162 W · 983 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3d…ebeabacked Siegemund | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 108 | 38.9%42 W · 66 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Siegemund | 57c | 21.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc469…00cbbacked Siegemund | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.