Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8b4e133c393559572fe2296aaf93623ad2b5d2ce52a076055bbe82cd7cd72ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,181
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,152
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,181 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 34c | 719.87$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.3 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 68c | 596.33$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.83 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 31c | 586.62$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.28 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 68c | 345.45$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.21 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 69c | 205.63$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.91 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fad…1a08backed No | 77c | 195.82$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.82 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 179.08$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 66c | 136.67$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.86 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 32c | 112.23$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 33c | 99.61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 32c | 97.35$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 85.39$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.79 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 67c | 84.76$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 76c | 83.74$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.22 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 60c | 72$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.94 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 39c | 47.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 40c | 46.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb430…efc9backed Yes | 34c | 44.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 34c | 44.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 67c | 44.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 39c | 44.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 40c | 44.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…ad42backed No | 69c | 44.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 139 | 59.7%83 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 67c | 39.15$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 77c | 39.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 33c | 38.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed Yes | 51c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1681…bbbebacked No | 69c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…7307backed Yes | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc65e…0b4ebacked No | 69c | 34.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +26%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 33c | 32.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 67c | 30.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 79c | 28.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff5…14babacked No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 153 | 75.2%115 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 79c | 27.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 68c | 27.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 68c | 25.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…9a51backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -10.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 68c | 23.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed Yes | 79c | 23.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 68c | 22.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bee…50ccbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 67c | 16.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 67c | 16.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 68c | 16.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked No | 67c | 16.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 65c | 15.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 66c | 15.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 72c | 14.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on July 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.