Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed1f4c4fd312021e41649ad35973df3e2473a130d708fa5eff9bab491bae6571
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,753
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,485
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,753 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 7c | 2,225$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,077.2 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed Yes | 1c | 1,508$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,492.92 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | +15.1wins | +0.18per pick | 20cpaid | +161.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 3c | 1,502$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,455.44 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,103$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,065.86 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 5c | 932.75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886.12 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 634.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.65 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…2c94backed Yes | 3c | 525.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.27 | 149 | 19.5%29 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 67c | 339.96$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.81 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 6c | 276.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.34 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 6c | 249.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 8c | 241.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.08 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 7c | 187.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.88 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 78c | 181.12$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.16 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 10c | 163.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.37 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 35c | 141.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.44 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 50c | 126.29$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.32 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 16c | 91.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.83 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 16c | 79.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 20c | 76.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.4 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 30c | 64.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.44 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 38c | 57.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 78c | 57.6$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 71c | 56.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.08 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 54c | 53.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.21 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 66c | 37.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 55c | 34.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc756…0ec3backed Yes | 70c | 31.61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 132 | 66.7%88 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.