Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd64c56027831f706e831a0d0887c9cb57e3f1f646d115426b5343b8456ad44a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,050
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,287
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,050 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 43c | 422.84$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.36 | 10,848 | 37.5%4,070 W · 6,778 L | +432.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 6c | 351.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 55c | 277.6$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.92 | 8,309 | 49.2%4,089 W · 4,220 L | +271.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 39c | 147.23$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 624 | 22.4%140 W · 484 L | -29.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45f3…216cbacked Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 40c | 113.91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,987 | 44.8%4,471 W · 5,516 L | +258.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…85d5backed No | 59c | 103.61$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.08 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 57c | 103.51$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.51 | 1,183 | 54.9%650 W · 533 L | +50.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24cf…7e5cbacked Yes | 35c | 85.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17bb…e889backed No | 61c | 82.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 18c | 76.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 41c | 73.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 9,885 | 45.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L | -302.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 59c | 67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 4,136 | 56.6%2,343 W · 1,793 L | +50.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 3,980 | 47.3%1,884 W · 2,096 L | +71.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 39c | 62.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 41c | 62.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 4,905 | 53.4%2,621 W · 2,284 L | +33.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 43c | 60.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 880 | 59.4%523 W · 357 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 59c | 59.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 2,237 | 49.3%1,102 W · 1,135 L | -10.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked Yes | 40c | 59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 123 | 56.9%70 W · 53 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 40c | 57.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…ad42backed No | 62c | 52.75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 139 | 59.7%83 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,179 | 57.4%677 W · 502 L | +23.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 43.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 6,111 | 49.3%3,012 W · 3,099 L | -116.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked No | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1,026 | 25%256 W · 770 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 80c | 38.51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdefc…2b0ebacked No | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9884…42b8backed No | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…7307backed No | 63c | 38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 59 | 67.8%40 W · 19 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 43c | 37.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…6f13backed Yes | 48c | 37.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 60c | 37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 288 | 52.8%152 W · 136 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 40c | 37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 42c | 34.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 38c | 31.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 372 | 50.5%188 W · 184 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 38c | 31.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e09…2116backed Yes | 38c | 31.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 888 | 55.7%495 W · 393 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 59c | 29.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 2,265 | 39.6%896 W · 1,369 L | -56.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…3ce8backed No | 59c | 28.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…e194backed No | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 68c | 22.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 4,302 | 53.5%2,303 W · 1,999 L | +157.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 4,377 | 53.8%2,357 W · 2,020 L | -17.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on July 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.